Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
$6.89
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0.08 | 60% 638-427 (1065) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $743.35 | $1.5K | +$744.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $745.1 | — | -$744.6 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$5.6 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$3.08 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $71.5 | — | -$71.92 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $53.43 | $53.97 | +$0.54 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $42.68 | $44 | +$1.32 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 63¢ | $26.46 | — | -$26.46 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $14.87 | $18.3 | +$3.43 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $5.32 | $14 | +$8.68 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $10.49 | $10.7 | +$0.21 | 34% 1270-2495 (3765) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 36¢ | $5.28 | $9 | +$3.72 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $3.7 | $10 | +$6.3 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $11.9 | $10 | -$1.9 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $8.4 | $15 | +$6.6 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $7.84 | $8 | +$0.16 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $10 | +$4.8 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.1¢ | $5.61 | — | -$5.61 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.2 | — | -$0.2 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0.08
Record
60%
638-427 (1065)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$5.6
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$3.08
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.43
Value
$53.97
PnL
+$0.54
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$42.68
Value
$44
PnL
+$1.32
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$26.46
Value
—
PnL
-$26.46
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$14.87
Value
$18.3
PnL
+$3.43
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$5.32
Value
$14
PnL
+$8.68
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$10.49
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$0.21
Record
34%
1270-2495 (3765)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$9
PnL
+$3.72
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.3
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$11.9
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.9
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.6
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
Invested
$7.84
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.16
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.8
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$5.61
Value
—
PnL
-$5.61
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.2
Value
—
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $53.97
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $44
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $18.3
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $14
pspspsps5
Down — $10.7
asdcaxz
Down — $9