Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$51.89

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 20 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares1,995

Combined PnL+$106.9

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$158.79

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$30.77	60% 638-427 (1065)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$515.43	$493.64	+$1.18	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.5¢	$250.44	—	-$249.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$244.19	$493.64	+$251.1
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 59.2¢	$206.62	$193.94	-$12.68	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 42.4¢	$95.97	$115	+$23.63	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 97.8¢	$59.66	$61	+$1.34	98% 4630-97 (4727)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$57.58	$98	+$40.42	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 51.1¢	$39.55	—	-$39.55	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 49.2¢	$31.32	—	-$31.32	46% 1737-1999 (3736)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 61.8¢	$15.45	$25	+$9.55	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 80¢	$24	$30	+$6	60% 4328-2942 (7270)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 42.1¢	$18.89	—	-$18.89	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$20.3	—	-$18.14	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 64¢	$10.44	$16.32	+$5.88	38% 813-1304 (2117)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 56¢	$16.72	$11	+$2	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 46.3¢	$8.04	—	-$8.04	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 28.4¢	$11.15	—	-$3.15	48% 2606-2865 (5471)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$3.42	—	-$3.42	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 3.2¢	$0.38	—	-$0.38	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$21.22	—	-$21.22	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 13.1¢	$4.97	—	-$4.97	40% 1785-2715 (4500)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$9.72	—	-$9.72	36% 1518-2714 (4232)