Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 47%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$125.98
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$12.35 | 60% 638-427 (1065) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$1.25 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $247.5 | — | -$248.75 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 69.5¢ | $120 | $133.69 | +$16.24 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | — | -$122.51 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 67.1¢ | $47.21 | $57.78 | +$10.57 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71.5¢ | $43.41 | $42.53 | -$0.88 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 58.5¢ | $20.9 | $30 | +$9.1 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $24.86 | $22.57 | -$2.29 | 46% 1737-1999 (3736) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.4¢ | $22.13 | — | -$13.88 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $12.24 | — | -$12.24 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $8.36 | — | -$8.36 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $8.16 | $8.24 | +$0.08 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $5.75 | — | -$4.91 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4 | $5 | +$1 | 70% 1877-817 (2694) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 18¢ | $2.7 | — | -$2.7 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $3.55 | $5 | +$1.45 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.2¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 65% 2887-1573 (4460) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $3.6 | — | -$3.6 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$12.35
Record
60%
638-427 (1065)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$120
Value
$133.69
PnL
+$16.24
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$122.51
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Invested
$47.21
Value
$57.78
PnL
+$10.57
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$43.41
Value
$42.53
PnL
-$0.88
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$20.9
Value
$30
PnL
+$9.1
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$22.57
PnL
-$2.29
Record
46%
1737-1999 (3736)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$22.13
Value
—
PnL
-$13.88
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$12.24
Value
—
PnL
-$12.24
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$8.36
Value
—
PnL
-$8.36
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$8.16
Value
$8.24
PnL
+$0.08
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$5.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.91
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$4
Value
$5
PnL
+$1
Record
70%
1877-817 (2694)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.7
Value
—
PnL
-$2.7
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
65%
2887-1573 (4460)
Invested
$3.6
Value
—
PnL
-$3.6
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $133.69
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $57.78
ply-pm2
Down — $42.53
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $30
rabadabadoo
Down — $22.57
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0