Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$26.94

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 17 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$270.82

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$14.5

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares145

Combined PnL-$41.44

Down — 53%Up — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$1.27	60% 638-427 (1065)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$737.34	$1.5K	+$745.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$737.38	—	-$746.6
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.6¢	$508.2	$504	-$0.44	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.6¢	$255.16	$504	+$248.86
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247.5	—	-$249.3
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$150	$120	-$2.34	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$60	$120	+$69.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$70	—	-$72.05
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 85.9¢	$141.05	$125.28	-$3.39	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$33.61	$48.33	+$14.72	49% 3684-3801 (7485)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.9¢	$24.6	$48.33	+$23.73
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.3¢	$9.01	—	-$9.01
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$38.4	$45	+$6.6	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 72.9¢	$79.72	$30.44	+$1.51	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 32.1¢	$14.49	—	-$14.49	46% 1737-1999 (3736)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$21.82	$21.73	-$0.09	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 20.5¢	$9.25	—	-$9.25	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 89¢	$11.57	$13	+$1.43	40% 1785-2715 (4500)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 64¢	$7.92	$12.37	+$4.45	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$6.93	$7	+$0.07	98% 4630-97 (4727)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 77¢	$8.47	$11	+$2.53	51% 2246-2136 (4382)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$4.9	—	-$4.9	50% 1006-996 (2002)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$1.51	—	-$1.51	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 12.4¢	$5.06	—	-$5.06	53% 3113-2811 (5924)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 72¢	$3.6	$5	+$1.4	70% 1877-817 (2694)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.76	—	-$1.76	65% 2887-1573 (4460)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 24.3¢	$3.16	—	-$3.16	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 19.4¢	$1.3	—	-$1.3	50% 2915-2911 (5826)