Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 36% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 36%
3 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$61.39
Smart Money Signal
8 of 22 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$0.85 | 60% 638-427 (1065) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $744 | $1.5K | +$746.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $747.44 | — | -$747.75 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.9¢ | $510.89 | $500 | -$5.71 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.9¢ | $254.4 | $500 | +$245.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $251.41 | — | -$251.41 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $270.98 | $274.28 | +$3.3 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $41.01 | $64 | +$22.99 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 42.2¢ | $88.01 | $30 | -$14.61 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 72¢ | $21.6 | $30 | +$13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.2¢ | $29.18 | — | -$27.61 | |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.91 | — | -$1.91 | 54% 1650-1425 (3075) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.9¢ | $29.16 | — | -$29.16 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.9¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $34.8 | $30 | -$4.8 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $31.68 | $33 | +$1.32 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.2¢ | $2.44 | — | -$2.44 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 60.2¢ | $18.15 | $30.17 | +$12.02 | 47% 2506-2778 (5284) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $22.46 | — | -$22.46 | 57% 5226-3866 (9092) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.3¢ | $16.31 | $16.49 | +$0.18 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.5¢ | $1.51 | — | -$1.51 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 52% 5230-4894 (10124) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $9.5 | — | -$9.5 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $6.29 | — | -$6.29 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97.3¢ | $5.88 | $6.04 | +$0.16 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $7.08 | — | -$7.08 | 51% 1162-1108 (2270) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $4.6 | $5.17 | +$0.57 | 65% 2887-1573 (4460) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 60% 4328-2942 (7270) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $4.2 | — | -$2.85 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$0.85
Record
60%
638-427 (1065)
Both legs:
Invested
$510.89
Value
$500
PnL
-$5.71
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$270.98
Value
$274.28
PnL
+$3.3
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$41.01
Value
$64
PnL
+$22.99
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$88.01
Value
$30
PnL
-$14.61
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.91
Value
—
PnL
-$1.91
Record
54%
1650-1425 (3075)
Invested
$29.16
Value
—
PnL
-$29.16
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$34.8
Value
$30
PnL
-$4.8
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$31.68
Value
$33
PnL
+$1.32
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$2.44
Value
—
PnL
-$2.44
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
ohioism<$100Invested
$18.15
Value
$30.17
PnL
+$12.02
Record
47%
2506-2778 (5284)
Invested
$22.46
Value
—
PnL
-$22.46
Record
57%
5226-3866 (9092)
Invested
$16.31
Value
$16.49
PnL
+$0.18
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.51
Value
—
PnL
-$1.51
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
52%
5230-4894 (10124)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
—
PnL
-$9.5
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
Invested
$6.29
Value
—
PnL
-$6.29
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6.04
PnL
+$0.16
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$7.08
Value
—
PnL
-$7.08
Record
51%
1162-1108 (2270)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$5.17
PnL
+$0.57
Record
65%
2887-1573 (4460)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
60%
4328-2942 (7270)
Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $274.28
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $64
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $30
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $33