Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (86%). 4 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET

4 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (22%) · Up at 14¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Up14¢Down86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 22%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$14.33

Smart Money Entry

48.5¢ → 14.5¢

-70% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 18 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up14%

Down86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,612

Combined PnL-$4.75

Down14 traders

Total Value$909.02

Total Shares1,061

Combined PnL+$19.07

Up — 22%Down — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$8.52	60% 625-416 (1041)
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$572.2	$689.72	+$117.52	49% 2537-2616 (5153)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$430.4	$509.03	+$78.63
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$141.8	$180.69	+$38.89
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.7¢	$511.85	$499.28	-$1.02	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
LI Little-big	Downavg 52¢	$104	$99	-$5	52% 1151-1083 (2234)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$49.2	$60	+$10.8	48% 2553-2774 (5327)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$31.2	$36.9	+$5.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$18	$23.1	+$5.1
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 55.3¢	$49.46	$59.87	+$10.4	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 69¢	$50.4	$55.65	+$5.25	52% 3909-3625 (7534)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$38.8	$47.7	+$8.9	47% 2471-2739 (5210)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$20.8	$24.6	+$3.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$18	$23.1	+$5.1
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$46.65	$43.28	-$3.37	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 52¢	$29.8	$36.15	+$6.35	43% 2435-3165 (5600)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$26.2	$33.1	+$6.9	48% 2576-2827 (5403)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 49.5¢	$45.39	$32.41	-$7.38	58% 5209-3849 (9058)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$19.9	$23.18	+$3.28	40% 1760-2679 (4439)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 52¢	$18.19	$22.36	+$4.17	46% 1715-1974 (3689)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$22.22	$21.78	-$0.44	51% 2213-2109 (4322)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 30¢	$15	$19.25	+$4.25	70% 1855-804 (2659)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 89¢	$17.8	$17.7	-$0.1	60% 4284-2912 (7196)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$15.4	$14.85	-$0.55	50% 986-979 (1965)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 86¢	$7.13	$7.11	-$0.02	52% 3078-2785 (5863)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.64	$5.73	+$0.15	62% 4692-2855 (7547)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 52¢	$3.12	$3.09	-$0.03	42% 2132-2886 (5018)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$8.52

Record

60%

625-416 (1041)

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$572.2

Value

$689.72

PnL

+$117.52

Record

49%

2537-2616 (5153)

Both legs:

Invested

$511.85

Value

$499.28

PnL

-$1.02

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Little-big

Down

Invested

$104

Value

$99

PnL

-$5

Record

52%

1151-1083 (2234)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$49.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$10.8

Record

48%

2553-2774 (5327)

Both legs:

Invested

$49.46

Value

$59.87

PnL

+$10.4

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$50.4

Value

$55.65

PnL

+$5.25

Record

52%

3909-3625 (7534)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$38.8

Value

$47.7

PnL

+$8.9

Record

47%

2471-2739 (5210)

Both legs:

Invested

$46.65

Value

$43.28

PnL

-$3.37

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$29.8

Value

$36.15

PnL

+$6.35

Record

43%

2435-3165 (5600)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$26.2

Value

$33.1

PnL

+$6.9

Record

48%

2576-2827 (5403)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$45.39

Value

$32.41

PnL

-$7.38

Record

58%

5209-3849 (9058)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$19.9

Value

$23.18

PnL

+$3.28

Record

40%

1760-2679 (4439)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$18.19

Value

$22.36

PnL

+$4.17

Record

46%

1715-1974 (3689)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$22.22

Value

$21.78

PnL

-$0.44

Record

51%

2213-2109 (4322)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

70%

1855-804 (2659)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$17.8

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

60%

4284-2912 (7196)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$15.4

Value

$14.85

PnL

-$0.55

Record

50%

986-979 (1965)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$7.13

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

3078-2785 (5863)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.64

Value

$5.73

PnL

+$0.15

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Down

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$0.03

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 18 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Down 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.4%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$509.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

609.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.