Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
Resolved Up. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 32%
1 arb excluded
$998.55
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 22 top traders (32%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $507.6 | $501.03 | +$3.04 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $253.07 | $501.03 | +$251.69 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.5 | — | -$248.65 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 74.1¢ | $127.98 | $130 | +$2.02 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $77.22 | $78 | +$0.78 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $56.43 | $74.91 | +$18.48 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $46.5 | $50 | +$3.51 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 68.8¢ | $20.77 | $25 | +$4.23 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $26.36 | $21.85 | -$4.51 | 49% 2537-2616 (5153) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $25.92 | $22 | +$1.12 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $16.15 | $20.2 | +$4.05 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $12.23 | $15.48 | +$3.25 | 38% 794-1290 (2084) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $21.38 | $18.18 | +$3.8 | 60% 4284-2912 (7196) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $6.83 | $6 | -$0.83 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $10.2 | $7.62 | -$2.58 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $6 | $6.39 | +$0.39 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $8.68 | $14 | +$5.32 | 58% 5209-3849 (9058) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 12.5¢ | $2.2 | — | -$2.2 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $3.78 | $7.88 | +$4.1 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.2¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 65% 2855-1552 (4407) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $0.22 | — | -$0.22 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 8.1¢ | $2.8 | — | -$2.8 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1504-2673 (4177) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 10.4¢ | $4.59 | — | -$4.59 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Invested
$507.6
Value
$501.03
PnL
+$3.04
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Invested
$127.98
Value
$130
PnL
+$2.02
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$77.22
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
ohioism<$100Invested
$56.43
Value
$74.91
PnL
+$18.48
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$46.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$3.51
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$25
PnL
+$4.23
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
Invested
$26.36
Value
$21.85
PnL
-$4.51
Record
49%
2537-2616 (5153)
Invested
$25.92
Value
$22
PnL
+$1.12
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
Invested
$16.15
Value
$20.2
PnL
+$4.05
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$15.48
PnL
+$3.25
Record
38%
794-1290 (2084)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$18.18
PnL
+$3.8
Record
60%
4284-2912 (7196)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$6.83
Value
$6
PnL
-$0.83
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$7.62
PnL
-$2.58
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
Invested
$6
Value
$6.39
PnL
+$0.39
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$8.68
Value
$14
PnL
+$5.32
Record
58%
5209-3849 (9058)
Invested
$2.2
Value
—
PnL
-$2.2
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$7.88
PnL
+$4.1
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
65%
2855-1552 (4407)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
—
PnL
-$0.22
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
—
PnL
-$2.8
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1504-2673 (4177)
Invested
$4.59
Value
—
PnL
-$4.59
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $130
hoodquant
Up — $78
ohioism
Up — $74.91
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $50
ply-pm2
Up — $25
uninformedfloww
Up — $21.85
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $22
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $20.2