Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Up 79%
3 arb excluded
$3.2K
$225.39
Smart Money Signal
15 of 19 top traders (79%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$0.31 | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $668.57 | $1.3K | +$663.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $678.01 | — | -$664.09 | |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.7 | $500.03 | +$10.4 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Upavg 45.9¢ | $281.1 | $612 | +$330.9 | 42% 2132-2886 (5018) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 71.3¢ | $138.94 | — | -$138.94 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $125.31 | $191 | +$65.69 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $90.69 | $191 | +$100.31 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.5¢ | $34.62 | — | -$34.62 | |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $162 | $125 | +$6.7 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $81.45 | $61.3 | -$20.15 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71¢ | $53.25 | — | -$53.25 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 46¢ | $28.2 | $61.3 | +$33.1 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $64.6 | — | -$61.6 | 60% 4284-2912 (7196) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $48.64 | $53.04 | +$4.4 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 63.7¢ | $24.51 | $38.48 | +$13.97 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 50.8¢ | $127 | — | -$27 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $19.52 | $27.2 | +$7.67 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 46.5¢ | $24.75 | $33.9 | +$9.15 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 62.3¢ | $37.71 | $25.62 | -$2.6 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $23 | $50 | +$27 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 42.3¢ | $21.3 | $50.39 | +$29.09 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $18 | — | -$18 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $8.05 | $12.24 | +$4.19 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $9.88 | $20.8 | +$10.92 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $6.25 | $12.5 | +$6.25 | 38% 794-1290 (2084) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $5.16 | $12 | +$6.84 | 48% 1516-1642 (3158) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 39.5¢ | $3.95 | $10 | +$6.05 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$0.31
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Both legs:
Invested
$504.7
Value
$500.03
PnL
+$10.4
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$281.1
Value
$612
PnL
+$330.9
Record
42%
2132-2886 (5018)
Invested
$138.94
Value
—
PnL
-$138.94
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$125.31
Value
$191
PnL
+$65.69
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Both legs:
Invested
$162
Value
$125
PnL
+$6.7
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Invested
$81.45
Value
$61.3
PnL
-$20.15
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Both legs:
Invested
$64.6
Value
—
PnL
-$61.6
Record
60%
4284-2912 (7196)
Invested
$48.64
Value
$53.04
PnL
+$4.4
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
Invested
$24.51
Value
$38.48
PnL
+$13.97
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$127
Value
—
PnL
-$27
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$19.52
Value
$27.2
PnL
+$7.67
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$24.75
Value
$33.9
PnL
+$9.15
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
Invested
$37.71
Value
$25.62
PnL
-$2.6
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
Invested
$23
Value
$50
PnL
+$27
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21.3
Value
$50.39
PnL
+$29.09
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
—
PnL
-$18
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
Invested
$8.05
Value
$12.24
PnL
+$4.19
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$9.88
Value
$20.8
PnL
+$10.92
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
Invested
$6.25
Value
$12.5
PnL
+$6.25
Record
38%
794-1290 (2084)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.84
Record
48%
1516-1642 (3158)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.95
Value
$10
PnL
+$6.05
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
Up — $500.03
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Up — $612
asdcaxz
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Up — $125
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
rabadabadoo
Up — $53.04
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $38.48