Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 41%
1 arb excluded
$457.76
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 22 top traders (41%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $505.2 | — | -$500.43 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $120 | -$11.65 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $60 | $120 | +$60.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $70 | — | -$72.5 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $94.05 | $85 | -$8 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $67.83 | $111.37 | +$43.55 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $37.19 | $49 | +$11.81 | 49% 3651-3756 (7407) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $16.8 | $17.14 | +$0.34 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $79.67 | — | -$79.67 | 49% 2537-2616 (5153) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $15.36 | $15 | -$0.36 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $12.62 | $15.77 | +$3.15 | 38% 794-1290 (2084) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.1¢ | $9.83 | $11.42 | +$1.59 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $6.79 | $7 | +$0.21 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.1¢ | $7.05 | — | -$7.05 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $5.16 | $6 | +$0.84 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $5.68 | $5 | -$0.68 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.9 | $5.05 | +$0.15 | 65% 2855-1552 (4407) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $3.7 | $5 | +$1.3 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $1.07 | — | -$1.07 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $8.46 | — | -$8.46 | 48% 1516-1642 (3158) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $4.03 | — | -$4.03 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $0.99 | — | -$0.99 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Invested
$505.2
Value
—
PnL
-$500.43
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Invested
$150
Value
$120
PnL
-$11.65
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.05
Value
$85
PnL
-$8
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$67.83
Value
$111.37
PnL
+$43.55
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$37.19
Value
$49
PnL
+$11.81
Record
49%
3651-3756 (7407)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$17.14
PnL
+$0.34
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$79.67
Value
—
PnL
-$79.67
Record
49%
2537-2616 (5153)
Invested
$15.36
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.36
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$15.77
PnL
+$3.15
Record
38%
794-1290 (2084)
Invested
$9.83
Value
$11.42
PnL
+$1.59
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.21
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
Invested
$7.05
Value
—
PnL
-$7.05
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.16
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.84
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$5.68
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.68
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.15
Record
65%
2855-1552 (4407)
Invested
$3.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.3
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.07
Value
—
PnL
-$1.07
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
Invested
$8.46
Value
—
PnL
-$8.46
Record
48%
1516-1642 (3158)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.03
Value
—
PnL
-$4.03
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
Invested
$0.99
Value
—
PnL
-$0.99
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $85
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $111.37
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $49
suntori
Down — $17.14
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $15
flippingsharks
Down — $15.77