Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 55%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$48.61
Smart Money Signal
11 of 20 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$2.94 | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500.56 | $500 | -$0.56 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250.56 | — | -$250.56 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $77.22 | $78 | +$0.78 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $45.88 | $40 | -$5.88 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $46.88 | $45 | -$1.88 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $24.08 | $28 | +$3.92 | 49% 2537-2616 (5153) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $20 | — | -$20 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 95¢ | $25.36 | $19.66 | -$5.7 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 46.6¢ | $6.11 | $13.1 | +$6.99 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $6 | $12 | +$6 | 58% 5209-3849 (9058) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 19¢ | $3.59 | — | -$3.59 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $5.6 | $6.36 | +$0.76 | 46% 3336-3878 (7214) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $5.65 | $5 | -$0.65 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $11 | — | -$11 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $5 | +$0.85 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.8¢ | $3.32 | — | -$3.32 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 5.1¢ | $4.46 | — | -$4.46 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 11.3¢ | $2.91 | — | -$2.91 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 4.4¢ | $1.13 | — | -$1.13 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.92 | — | -$1.92 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$2.94
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Invested
$500.56
Value
$500
PnL
-$0.56
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.22
Value
$78
PnL
+$0.78
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$45.88
Value
$40
PnL
-$5.88
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$46.88
Value
$45
PnL
-$1.88
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
Invested
$24.08
Value
$28
PnL
+$3.92
Record
49%
2537-2616 (5153)
Invested
$20
Value
—
PnL
-$20
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$25.36
Value
$19.66
PnL
-$5.7
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$6.11
Value
$13.1
PnL
+$6.99
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
Invested
$6
Value
$12
PnL
+$6
Record
58%
5209-3849 (9058)
Invested
$3.59
Value
—
PnL
-$3.59
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$0.76
Record
46%
3336-3878 (7214)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.65
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.32
Value
—
PnL
-$3.32
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
—
PnL
-$4.46
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.91
Value
—
PnL
-$2.91
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.13
Value
—
PnL
-$1.13
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
Invested
$1.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.92
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Up — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $78
asdcaxz
Up — $40
ply-pm2
Up — $45
uninformedfloww
Up — $28
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $19.66
rabadabadoo
Up — $13.1
Hcrystallash
Up — $12