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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Down 53%

Total Value

$619.83

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,734

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Up8 traders

Total Value$619.83

Total Shares620

Combined PnL-$3.1

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K	60% 625-416 (1041)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$1.4	54% 4282-3627 (7909)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 89.6¢	$53.2	$45	-$8.2	50% 4644-4696 (9340)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$59.85	—	-$42.3	51% 2574-2433 (5007)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$25.32	$26.67	+$1.35	54% 2739-2328 (5067)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$20.79	$21	+$0.21	98% 4560-95 (4655)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 95.2¢	$11.5	$12.07	+$0.57	66% 4016-2029 (6045)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.92	$10	-$0.92	50% 2877-2870 (5747)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	$5	+$2.45	58% 5209-3849 (9058)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$1.92	—	-$1.92	42% 2132-2886 (5018)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10.3¢	$4.04	—	-$4.04	52% 3078-2785 (5863)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.5¢	$1.75	—	-$1.75	40% 1760-2679 (4439)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 4¢	$1.36	—	-$1.36	34% 1253-2460 (3713)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 14.1¢	$1.48	—	-$1.48	46% 1715-1974 (3689)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	36% 1504-2673 (4177)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 64¢	$0.06	$0.09	+$0.03	62% 4692-2855 (7547)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

60%

625-416 (1041)

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$1.4

Record

54%

4282-3627 (7909)

Invested

$53.2

Value

$45

PnL

-$8.2

Record

50%

4644-4696 (9340)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$59.85

Value

—

PnL

-$42.3

Record

51%

2574-2433 (5007)

Invested

$25.32

Value

$26.67

PnL

+$1.35

Record

54%

2739-2328 (5067)

Invested

$20.79

Value

$21

PnL

+$0.21

Record

98%

4560-95 (4655)

Invested

$11.5

Value

$12.07

PnL

+$0.57

Record

66%

4016-2029 (6045)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.92

Record

50%

2877-2870 (5747)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.45

Record

58%

5209-3849 (9058)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

—

PnL

-$1.92

Record

42%

2132-2886 (5018)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$4.04

Value

—

PnL

-$4.04

Record

52%

3078-2785 (5863)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

40%

1760-2679 (4439)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.36

Value

—

PnL

-$1.36

Record

34%

1253-2460 (3713)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$1.48

Value

—

PnL

-$1.48

Record

46%

1715-1974 (3689)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

36%

1504-2673 (4177)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$0.06

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

62%

4692-2855 (7547)

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x9c30f6a7...44859c

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794768900

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $500

asdcaxz

Up — $45

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $26.67

hoodquant

Up — $21

asdaefef

Up — $12.07

dvasdkasodk

Up — $10

Hcrystallash

Up — $5

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Down — $0

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