Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
$46.98
Smart Money Signal
14 of 22 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$6.37 | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $505.9 | $505.35 | +$4.26 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $253.99 | $505.35 | +$252.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$248.2 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $172.67 | $172.84 | +$0.17 | 53% 1627-1417 (3044) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $120 | -$8.3 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $60 | $120 | +$66.7 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.7¢ | $90.27 | $107.97 | +$17.7 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $33.02 | $35.42 | +$7.19 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $27.26 | $33.24 | +$5.98 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 62.5¢ | $35 | $56 | +$21 | 51% 2213-2109 (4322) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $19.92 | $15 | -$4.92 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $20.29 | $23 | +$2.71 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $20.66 | $27.76 | +$7.1 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.1¢ | $24.73 | $22.13 | -$2.6 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $11.85 | $15.12 | +$3.27 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 22.5¢ | $6.69 | — | -$6.69 | 34% 1253-2460 (3713) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $3.6 | $6 | +$2.4 | 58% 5209-3849 (9058) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 12.2¢ | $0.87 | — | -$0.87 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 42% 2132-2886 (5018) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 52% 1151-1083 (2234) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 60% 4284-2912 (7196) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 17.9¢ | $3.53 | — | -$3.53 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $3.42 | — | -$3.42 | 70% 1855-804 (2659) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $1.9 | — | -$1.9 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$6.37
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Invested
$505.9
Value
$505.35
PnL
+$4.26
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Invested
$172.67
Value
$172.84
PnL
+$0.17
Record
53%
1627-1417 (3044)
Invested
$150
Value
$120
PnL
-$8.3
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
Both legs:
Invested
$90.27
Value
$107.97
PnL
+$17.7
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$33.02
Value
$35.42
PnL
+$7.19
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$27.26
Value
$33.24
PnL
+$5.98
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$35
Value
$56
PnL
+$21
Record
51%
2213-2109 (4322)
Invested
$19.92
Value
$15
PnL
-$4.92
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
Invested
$20.29
Value
$23
PnL
+$2.71
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
Invested
$20.66
Value
$27.76
PnL
+$7.1
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
Invested
$24.73
Value
$22.13
PnL
-$2.6
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.85
Value
$15.12
PnL
+$3.27
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$6.69
Value
—
PnL
-$6.69
Record
34%
1253-2460 (3713)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
58%
5209-3849 (9058)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.87
Value
—
PnL
-$0.87
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
42%
2132-2886 (5018)
Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
52%
1151-1083 (2234)
Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
60%
4284-2912 (7196)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
—
PnL
-$3.53
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$3.42
Value
—
PnL
-$3.42
Record
70%
1855-804 (2659)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.9
Value
—
PnL
-$1.9
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $172.84
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $107.97
rabadabadoo
Down — $35.42
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $33.24
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $56
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $23