Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
-$79.26
Smart Money Signal
10 of 18 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$7.91 | 60% 625-416 (1041) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $506.49 | $495 | -$8.91 | 54% 4282-3627 (7909) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.5 | $495 | +$246.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $255.78 | — | -$255.71 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $264.33 | $267 | +$2.67 | 98% 4560-95 (4655) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 49.5¢ | $151.8 | $145 | +$2.7 | 52% 3909-3625 (7534) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $44.5 | $50 | +$5.5 | 70% 1855-804 (2659) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 42.4¢ | $98.47 | — | -$28.42 | 51% 2574-2433 (5007) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $23.51 | $30.3 | +$6.79 | 46% 1715-1974 (3689) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $31 | $26.66 | -$3.7 | 66% 4016-2029 (6045) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 82.8¢ | $20.7 | $25 | +$4.3 | 48% 2553-2774 (5327) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 72.6¢ | $25.11 | — | -$24.13 | 62% 4692-2855 (7547) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $16.05 | $18.45 | +$2.4 | 48% 2576-2827 (5403) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 22.9¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 43% 2435-3165 (5600) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $11.25 | — | -$11.25 | 54% 2739-2328 (5067) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $5.8 | — | -$5.8 | 47% 2471-2739 (5210) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $5 | +$3.65 | 52% 3078-2785 (5863) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.35 | $5.63 | +$4.28 | 50% 2877-2870 (5747) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.4¢ | $36.69 | — | -$35.34 | 50% 4644-4696 (9340) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $2.38 | — | -$2.38 | 38% 794-1290 (2084) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 40% 1760-2679 (4439) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$7.91
Record
60%
625-416 (1041)
Invested
$506.49
Value
$495
PnL
-$8.91
Record
54%
4282-3627 (7909)
Both legs:
Invested
$264.33
Value
$267
PnL
+$2.67
Record
98%
4560-95 (4655)
Invested
$151.8
Value
$145
PnL
+$2.7
Record
52%
3909-3625 (7534)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$44.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$5.5
Record
70%
1855-804 (2659)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$98.47
Value
—
PnL
-$28.42
Record
51%
2574-2433 (5007)
Invested
$23.51
Value
$30.3
PnL
+$6.79
Record
46%
1715-1974 (3689)
Invested
$31
Value
$26.66
PnL
-$3.7
Record
66%
4016-2029 (6045)
Invested
$20.7
Value
$25
PnL
+$4.3
Record
48%
2553-2774 (5327)
Invested
$25.11
Value
—
PnL
-$24.13
Record
62%
4692-2855 (7547)
Invested
$16.05
Value
$18.45
PnL
+$2.4
Record
48%
2576-2827 (5403)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
43%
2435-3165 (5600)
Invested
$11.25
Value
—
PnL
-$11.25
Record
54%
2739-2328 (5067)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$5.8
Record
47%
2471-2739 (5210)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.65
Record
52%
3078-2785 (5863)
Invested
$1.35
Value
$5.63
PnL
+$4.28
Record
50%
2877-2870 (5747)
Invested
$36.69
Value
—
PnL
-$35.34
Record
50%
4644-4696 (9340)
Invested
$2.38
Value
—
PnL
-$2.38
Record
38%
794-1290 (2084)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
40%
1760-2679 (4439)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $267
soswald1
Down — $145
BoneOhio
Down — $50
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
Down — $30.3
asdaefef
Down — $26.66
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $25
drfc4eybh7i8
CTRUp — $0