Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 44%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$22.26
Smart Money Signal
7 of 16 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$2.65 | 60% 615-414 (1029) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $732.5 | $1.5K | +$740.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $737.5 | — | -$743.4 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.14 | 53% 1608-1411 (3019) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $511.74 | $501.93 | -$0.25 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 74.5¢ | $60.25 | $79 | +$18.75 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $35.05 | $60.98 | +$25.93 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 89.6¢ | $25.05 | $25 | -$0.05 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.7¢ | $17.95 | $23.7 | +$5.75 | 54% 2727-2307 (5034) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.5¢ | $14 | — | -$9.8 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.65 | $5.2 | +$2.55 | 48% 1505-1632 (3137) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $1.25 | — | -$1.25 | 62% 4661-2837 (7498) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1496-2655 (4151) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $9.61 | — | -$9.61 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $6.8 | — | -$6.8 | 48% 2561-2807 (5368) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.5¢ | $5.3 | — | -$5.3 | 46% 1703-1963 (3666) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $4.3 | — | -$4.3 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$2.65
Record
60%
615-414 (1029)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,300.86
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.14
Record
53%
1608-1411 (3019)
Invested
$511.74
Value
$501.93
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Invested
$60.25
Value
$79
PnL
+$18.75
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Invested
$35.05
Value
$60.98
PnL
+$25.93
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$25.05
Value
$25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
Invested
$17.95
Value
$23.7
PnL
+$5.75
Record
54%
2727-2307 (5034)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$14
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5.2
PnL
+$2.55
Record
48%
1505-1632 (3137)
Invested
$1.25
Value
—
PnL
-$1.25
Record
62%
4661-2837 (7498)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1496-2655 (4151)
Invested
$9.61
Value
—
PnL
-$9.61
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
Invested
$6.8
Value
—
PnL
-$6.8
Record
48%
2561-2807 (5368)
Invested
$5.3
Value
—
PnL
-$5.3
Record
46%
1703-1963 (3666)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$4.3
Value
—
PnL
-$4.3
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Down — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
Down — $501.93
asdcaxz
Down — $79
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $60.98
asdaefef
Down — $25
ply-pm2
Down — $23.7
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0
PBot-5
Down — $5.2