Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET
Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Down 65%
2 arb excluded
$827.5
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 21 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 615-414 (1029) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$3.5 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$246.5 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $174.36 | $176.12 | +$1.76 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $43.11 | $37.86 | -$5.25 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.1¢ | $20.11 | $37.86 | +$17.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 41.8¢ | $23 | — | -$23 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $35.06 | — | -$35.06 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 63.8¢ | $19.2 | $30.11 | +$10.91 | 52% 5200-4875 (10075) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 73.9¢ | $29.37 | $33.47 | +$4.1 | 54% 2727-2307 (5034) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $15.15 | $30 | +$14.85 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $3.32 | — | -$3.32 | 53% 1608-1411 (3019) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.6¢ | $17.4 | — | -$17.4 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $7.59 | $11 | +$3.41 | 70% 1846-795 (2641) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 33.8¢ | $6.75 | — | -$6.75 | 48% 2561-2807 (5368) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.33 | — | -$1.33 | 34% 1241-2451 (3692) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $3.75 | $5.07 | +$1.32 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $4.42 | — | -$4.42 | 51% 1142-1077 (2219) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $9.87 | $3 | -$1.05 | 40% 1745-2665 (4410) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 42% 2109-2870 (4979) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 60% 4264-2896 (7160) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $5.43 | — | -$3.23 | 46% 1703-1963 (3666) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 83¢ | $0.73 | $0.88 | +$0.15 | 52% 3060-2773 (5833) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.1¢ | $33.97 | — | -$33.97 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 22.4¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
615-414 (1029)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.5
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Both legs:
Invested
$174.36
Value
$176.12
PnL
+$1.76
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$43.11
Value
$37.86
PnL
-$5.25
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.06
Value
—
PnL
-$35.06
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$19.2
Value
$30.11
PnL
+$10.91
Record
52%
5200-4875 (10075)
Invested
$29.37
Value
$33.47
PnL
+$4.1
Record
54%
2727-2307 (5034)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$15.15
Value
$30
PnL
+$14.85
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
Invested
$3.32
Value
—
PnL
-$3.32
Record
53%
1608-1411 (3019)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$17.4
Value
—
PnL
-$17.4
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$7.59
Value
$11
PnL
+$3.41
Record
70%
1846-795 (2641)
Invested
$6.75
Value
—
PnL
-$6.75
Record
48%
2561-2807 (5368)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$1.33
Record
34%
1241-2451 (3692)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$5.07
PnL
+$1.32
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
Invested
$4.42
Value
—
PnL
-$4.42
Record
51%
1142-1077 (2219)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$9.87
Value
$3
PnL
-$1.05
Record
40%
1745-2665 (4410)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
42%
2109-2870 (4979)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
60%
4264-2896 (7160)
Invested
$5.43
Value
—
PnL
-$3.23
Record
46%
1703-1963 (3666)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0.15
Record
52%
3060-2773 (5833)
Invested
$33.97
Value
—
PnL
-$33.97
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $176.12
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
blue.birds
Up — $30.11
ply-pm2
Up — $33.47
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $30
0x50f7
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
CTRDown — $0