Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 59%
2 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-2.1K
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 60% 615-414 (1029) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $504.4 | $495 | +$5.45 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.5 | $495 | +$247.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $246.92 | — | -$242 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $344.07 | $376.97 | +$32.91 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46¢ | $173.52 | $376.97 | +$203.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.5¢ | $170.55 | — | -$170.55 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $153.25 | $190.99 | +$37.74 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $117.81 | $119 | +$1.19 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $105 | -$1.16 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 43.3¢ | $56.65 | — | -$56.65 | 48% 2561-2807 (5368) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 43.5¢ | $483.97 | — | -$467.22 | 49% 2514-2591 (5105) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 58.4¢ | $84.38 | — | -$84.38 | 46% 1703-1963 (3666) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $69.98 | $72.33 | +$2.35 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 44.5¢ | $54.87 | $64.35 | +$9.48 | 54% 2727-2307 (5034) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 73.7¢ | $82.94 | — | -$82.94 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.6¢ | $52.85 | — | -$52.85 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $37.11 | — | -$37.11 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 45.9¢ | $39.04 | $36.77 | +$3.28 | 62% 4661-2837 (7498) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $32.7 | $54.51 | +$21.8 | 60% 4264-2896 (7160) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 67¢ | $33.5 | — | -$33.5 | 70% 1846-795 (2641) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 96.6¢ | $27.79 | $25 | -$2.79 | 52% 3060-2773 (5833) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.1¢ | $11.86 | — | -$11.86 | 50% 2856-2850 (5706) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.9¢ | $11.55 | — | -$11.55 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 54.2¢ | $10.55 | — | -$10.55 | 65% 2837-1544 (4381) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $4.5 | — | -$4.5 | 40% 1745-2665 (4410) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $4.75 | $5 | +$0.25 | 50% 1757-1792 (3549) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1496-2655 (4151) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
60%
615-414 (1029)
Invested
$504.4
Value
$495
PnL
+$5.45
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Both legs:
Invested
$344.07
Value
$376.97
PnL
+$32.91
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.25
Value
$190.99
PnL
+$37.74
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$117.81
Value
$119
PnL
+$1.19
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Invested
$150
Value
$105
PnL
-$1.16
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Invested
$56.65
Value
—
PnL
-$56.65
Record
48%
2561-2807 (5368)
Invested
$483.97
Value
—
PnL
-$467.22
Record
49%
2514-2591 (5105)
Invested
$84.38
Value
—
PnL
-$84.38
Record
46%
1703-1963 (3666)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$69.98
Value
$72.33
PnL
+$2.35
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$54.87
Value
$64.35
PnL
+$9.48
Record
54%
2727-2307 (5034)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$82.94
Value
—
PnL
-$82.94
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
Invested
$52.85
Value
—
PnL
-$52.85
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$37.11
Value
—
PnL
-$37.11
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Invested
$39.04
Value
$36.77
PnL
+$3.28
Record
62%
4661-2837 (7498)
Invested
$32.7
Value
$54.51
PnL
+$21.8
Record
60%
4264-2896 (7160)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$33.5
Value
—
PnL
-$33.5
Record
70%
1846-795 (2641)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.79
Value
$25
PnL
-$2.79
Record
52%
3060-2773 (5833)
Invested
$11.86
Value
—
PnL
-$11.86
Record
50%
2856-2850 (5706)
Invested
$11.55
Value
—
PnL
-$11.55
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
Invested
$10.55
Value
—
PnL
-$10.55
Record
65%
2837-1544 (4381)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.5
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
40%
1745-2665 (4410)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$4.75
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
1757-1792 (3549)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1496-2655 (4151)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $190.99
hoodquant
Down — $119
soswald1
Down — $105
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $72.33