Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
21
Up 55%
2 arb excluded
$2.7K
$40.35
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$38.32 | 60% 615-414 (1029) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $632.72 | β | -$605.53 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $650.11 | $1.3K | +$643.86 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 29.7Β’ | $153.83 | $517.96 | +$364.13 | 49% 2514-2591 (5105) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $503.84 | $503.73 | +$3.4 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.3Β’ | $248.28 | $503.73 | +$253.4 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 62.9Β’ | $197.81 | β | -$197.81 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 49.6Β’ | $151.95 | $100 | +$4.49 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.4Β’ | $56.04 | β | -$56.04 | 46% 1703-1963 (3666) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.8Β’ | $42.34 | β | -$42.34 | 54% 2727-2307 (5034) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.7Β’ | $38.85 | β | -$38.85 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 45.1Β’ | $35.88 | $54 | +$18.12 | 48% 2561-2807 (5368) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 57.2Β’ | $54.01 | $37.49 | -$15.58 | 62% 4661-2837 (7498) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 40.9Β’ | $41.11 | $94.99 | +$53.88 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.3Β’ | $78.98 | β | -$12.02 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 48.4Β’ | $20.99 | $25.39 | +$4.4 | 50% 2856-2850 (5706) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 49Β’ | $24.5 | β | -$24.5 | 51% 1142-1077 (2219) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.6Β’ | $10.75 | β | -$10.75 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 86.9Β’ | $9.15 | $10.53 | +$1.38 | 50% 1757-1792 (3549) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 52.5Β’ | $9.31 | $10 | +$0.69 | 65% 2837-1544 (4381) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9Β’ | $5.61 | $5.62 | +$0.01 | 53% 1608-1411 (3019) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 61Β’ | $3.3 | $5.41 | +$2.11 | 40% 1745-2665 (4410) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 47Β’ | $2.82 | β | -$2.82 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 51Β’ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 52% 3060-2773 (5833) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51Β’ | $13.45 | β | -$13.45 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 21Β’ | $5.46 | β | +$2.86 | 60% 4264-2896 (7160) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$38.32
Record
60%
615-414 (1029)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.83
Value
$517.96
PnL
+$364.13
Record
49%
2514-2591 (5105)
Invested
$503.84
Value
$503.73
PnL
+$3.4
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Both legs:
Invested
$197.81
Value
β
PnL
-$197.81
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Invested
$151.95
Value
$100
PnL
+$4.49
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Invested
$56.04
Value
β
PnL
-$56.04
Record
46%
1703-1963 (3666)
Invested
$42.34
Value
β
PnL
-$42.34
Record
54%
2727-2307 (5034)
Invested
$38.85
Value
β
PnL
-$38.85
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
Invested
$35.88
Value
$54
PnL
+$18.12
Record
48%
2561-2807 (5368)
Invested
$54.01
Value
$37.49
PnL
-$15.58
Record
62%
4661-2837 (7498)
ohioism<$100Invested
$41.11
Value
$94.99
PnL
+$53.88
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$78.98
Value
β
PnL
-$12.02
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
Invested
$20.99
Value
$25.39
PnL
+$4.4
Record
50%
2856-2850 (5706)
Invested
$24.5
Value
β
PnL
-$24.5
Record
51%
1142-1077 (2219)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.75
Value
β
PnL
-$10.75
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$9.15
Value
$10.53
PnL
+$1.38
Record
50%
1757-1792 (3549)
Invested
$9.31
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.69
Record
65%
2837-1544 (4381)
Invested
$5.61
Value
$5.62
PnL
+$0.01
Record
53%
1608-1411 (3019)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$5.41
PnL
+$2.11
Record
40%
1745-2665 (4410)
Invested
$2.82
Value
β
PnL
-$2.82
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
52%
3060-2773 (5833)
Invested
$13.45
Value
β
PnL
-$13.45
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$5.46
Value
β
PnL
+$2.86
Record
60%
4264-2896 (7160)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
uninformedfloww
Up β $517.96
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
asdcaxz
CTRDown β $0
soswald1
Up β $100
rabadabadoo
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0
asdaefef
CTRDown β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up β $54
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $37.49