Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 82%
5 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$26.96
Smart Money Signal
15 of 18 top traders (83%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$13.09 | 60% 615-414 (1029) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $709.7 | $1.4K | +$730.32 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $699.98 | — | -$717.23 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.4¢ | $502 | $494.72 | -$4.14 | 54% 4250-3596 (7846) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $252 | — | -$252 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $247.36 | $494.72 | +$247.86 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $135 | +$3.84 | 52% 3882-3606 (7488) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $67.5 | $135 | +$67.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $52.32 | — | -$64.11 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 72.7¢ | $81.42 | $94.07 | +$12.65 | 49% 3629-3731 (7360) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 72.7¢ | $68.4 | $94.07 | +$25.67 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.1¢ | $13.02 | — | -$13.02 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 77.3¢ | $53.28 | $56.73 | +$3.45 | 50% 4615-4686 (9301) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.3¢ | $43.85 | $56.73 | +$12.88 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 21.5¢ | $9.43 | — | -$9.43 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $35.79 | $36.15 | +$0.36 | 98% 4530-94 (4624) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.6¢ | $15.06 | — | -$15.06 | 54% 2727-2307 (5034) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $27.55 | $20 | -$7.55 | 43% 2420-3146 (5566) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 78.8¢ | $15.75 | $20 | +$4.25 | 48% 2561-2807 (5368) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $38.46 | — | -$35.52 | 47% 2455-2714 (5169) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $18.12 | $21 | +$22.28 | 51% 2557-2416 (4973) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $24.86 | $23.87 | -$0.99 | 40% 1745-2665 (4410) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $20.52 | $19.04 | -$1.48 | 66% 3992-2014 (6006) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $16.44 | — | -$16.44 | 51% 2193-2101 (4294) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $5.7 | $10 | +$4.3 | 48% 2538-2754 (5292) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $5.53 | $9.7 | +$4.17 | 46% 1703-1963 (3666) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $8.1 | $7.29 | +$0.11 | 62% 4661-2837 (7498) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $11.3 | $11 | -$0.3 | 49% 2514-2591 (5105) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 73.8¢ | $8.86 | $12 | +$3.14 | 42% 2109-2870 (4979) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $5.28 | $11 | +$5.72 | 58% 5200-3842 (9042) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $2.95 | $6.56 | +$3.61 | 65% 2837-1544 (4381) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $0.98 | $1 | +$0.02 | 34% 1241-2451 (3692) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.86 | $0.01 | +$2.43 | 46% 3313-3856 (7169) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.09
Record
60%
615-414 (1029)
Both legs:
Invested
$502
Value
$494.72
PnL
-$4.14
Record
54%
4250-3596 (7846)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$135
PnL
+$3.84
Record
52%
3882-3606 (7488)
Both legs:
Invested
$81.42
Value
$94.07
PnL
+$12.65
Record
49%
3629-3731 (7360)
Both legs:
Invested
$53.28
Value
$56.73
PnL
+$3.45
Record
50%
4615-4686 (9301)
Both legs:
Invested
$35.79
Value
$36.15
PnL
+$0.36
Record
98%
4530-94 (4624)
Invested
$15.06
Value
—
PnL
-$15.06
Record
54%
2727-2307 (5034)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$27.55
Value
$20
PnL
-$7.55
Record
43%
2420-3146 (5566)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.25
Record
48%
2561-2807 (5368)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$38.46
Value
—
PnL
-$35.52
Record
47%
2455-2714 (5169)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$18.12
Value
$21
PnL
+$22.28
Record
51%
2557-2416 (4973)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$24.86
Value
$23.87
PnL
-$0.99
Record
40%
1745-2665 (4410)
Invested
$20.52
Value
$19.04
PnL
-$1.48
Record
66%
3992-2014 (6006)
Invested
$16.44
Value
—
PnL
-$16.44
Record
51%
2193-2101 (4294)
Invested
$5.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.3
Record
48%
2538-2754 (5292)
Invested
$5.53
Value
$9.7
PnL
+$4.17
Record
46%
1703-1963 (3666)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$7.29
PnL
+$0.11
Record
62%
4661-2837 (7498)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.3
Record
49%
2514-2591 (5105)
Invested
$8.86
Value
$12
PnL
+$3.14
Record
42%
2109-2870 (4979)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.72
Record
58%
5200-3842 (9042)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$6.56
PnL
+$3.61
Record
65%
2837-1544 (4381)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$0.98
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.02
Record
34%
1241-2451 (3692)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$2.43
Record
46%
3313-3856 (7169)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $36.15
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
G-Penis-Monster
Up — $20
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $20
ohioism
CTRDown — $0