Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$46.65

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 18 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,559

Combined PnL+$149.3

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares411

Combined PnL-$102.65

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$2.38	60% 609-408 (1017)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$735.29	$1.5K	+$741.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$742.01	—	-$744.13
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.3¢	$506.7	$500	+$6.5	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$399.3	$403.33	+$4.03	53% 1595-1405 (3000)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 70.9¢	$176.58	$249	+$72.42	49% 2495-2563 (5058)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$202.74	$206	+$3.26	98% 4498-92 (4590)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$9.27	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$75	$150	+$75
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$62.62	—	-$65.73
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 44¢	$15.4	$35	+$19.6	48% 1498-1615 (3113)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 67.7¢	$33.85	$50	+$16.15	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$20.47	$30	+$9.53	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$32.69	—	-$32.69	51% 1133-1071 (2204)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 78¢	$37.34	$37.66	+$7.37	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 43.8¢	$55.4	—	-$55.4	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 75.3¢	$16.87	$18.82	+$1.95	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 86.6¢	$11.51	$12	+$0.49	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 50¢	$7	$14	+$7	48% 2544-2786 (5330)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$7.7	—	-$6.56	62% 4631-2815 (7446)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 68¢	$2.13	$3.13	+$1	42% 2086-2846 (4932)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4.4¢	$1.51	—	-$1.51	34% 1232-2436 (3668)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 3.6¢	$4.37	—	-$4.37	40% 1734-2647 (4381)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 1.9¢	$2.12	—	-$2.12	47% 1695-1948 (3643)