Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
25
Up 33%
$1.1K
$-1.9K
Smart Money Signal
8 of 25 top traders (32%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $382.2 | $386.06 | +$3.86 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $264.74 | $265 | +$0.26 | 53% 1595-1405 (3000) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 89.6¢ | $118.98 | $91.28 | -$26.7 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $73.29 | $88.31 | +$15.02 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $26.69 | $39.99 | +$13.3 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $29.12 | $31 | +$1.88 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $22.14 | $29.18 | +$7.04 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $32.52 | $29 | -$3.52 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $25.5 | $50 | +$24.5 | 51% 1133-1071 (2204) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 58.4¢ | $12.84 | $22 | +$9.16 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 75.6¢ | $18.9 | $25 | +$6.1 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.8¢ | $15.1 | $15.65 | +$0.55 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $12.72 | $24 | +$11.28 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $8.13 | $6 | -$2.13 | 47% 1695-1948 (3643) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.7 | $5.4 | +$0.7 | 65% 2817-1530 (4347) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $4.7 | $5.4 | +$0.7 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $2.6 | — | -$2.6 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $0.49 | — | -$0.49 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1488-2638 (4126) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.2¢ | $5.53 | — | -$5.53 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $11.35 | — | -$1.45 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $9.34 | $0.01 | +$7.09 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Invested
$382.2
Value
$386.06
PnL
+$3.86
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$264.74
Value
$265
PnL
+$0.26
Record
53%
1595-1405 (3000)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$118.98
Value
$91.28
PnL
-$26.7
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$73.29
Value
$88.31
PnL
+$15.02
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$26.69
Value
$39.99
PnL
+$13.3
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$29.12
Value
$31
PnL
+$1.88
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$22.14
Value
$29.18
PnL
+$7.04
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$32.52
Value
$29
PnL
-$3.52
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
Invested
$25.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$24.5
Record
51%
1133-1071 (2204)
Invested
$12.84
Value
$22
PnL
+$9.16
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
Invested
$18.9
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.1
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$15.1
Value
$15.65
PnL
+$0.55
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$12.72
Value
$24
PnL
+$11.28
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$8.13
Value
$6
PnL
-$2.13
Record
47%
1695-1948 (3643)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
65%
2817-1530 (4347)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5.4
PnL
+$0.7
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
—
PnL
-$2.6
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.49
Value
—
PnL
-$0.49
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1488-2638 (4126)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$5.53
Value
—
PnL
-$5.53
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
Invested
$11.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$7.09
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $386.06
0x50f7
Down — $265
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $91.28
uninformedfloww
Down — $88.31
asdcaxz
Down — $39.99
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $31
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $29.18
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $29