Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET

Resolved Down. 30% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 30%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$133.62

Smart Money Signal

7 of 23 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$632.03

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$118.61

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares394

Combined PnL-$252.22

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	+$2.21	60% 609-408 (1017)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$658.31	$1.3K	+$670.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$659.81	—	-$667.95
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 49.7¢	$510.8	$500.02	+$8.8	54% 4218-3562 (7780)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.7¢	$248.38	$500.02	+$253.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$246.12	—	-$245.1
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 71.1¢	$194.37	$207.91	+$15.41	50% 4592-4670 (9262)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 57.2¢	$85.51	$83	-$2.51	49% 3629-3730 (7359)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51¢	$42.35	$83	+$40.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.2¢	$43.16	—	-$43.16
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$63.84	$74.35	+$10.51	47% 1695-1948 (3643)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$46.1	$74.35	+$28.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.9¢	$17.74	—	-$17.74
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$46.82	$59	+$12.18	44% 2407-3121 (5528)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 98.9¢	$56.28	$56.91	+$0.63	98% 4498-92 (4590)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$45.77	$45.52	-$0.25	54% 2708-2292 (5000)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 39.5¢	$66.98	—	-$30.3	51% 2540-2400 (4940)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 53.4¢	$28.85	$45.26	+$16.41	48% 2544-2786 (5330)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 76¢	$30.82	$40.31	+$9.49	52% 3043-2759 (5802)
SO soswald1<$100	Downavg 52.1¢	$27.1	$40	+$12.9	52% 3858-3579 (7437)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$21.21	—	-$21.21	58% 5191-3834 (9025)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 79¢	$18.28	$14.56	-$3.72	48% 2518-2730 (5248)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 79¢	$13.77	$17.43	+$3.66	62% 4631-2815 (7446)
SU suntori<$100	Downavg 31¢	$4.67	$15.06	+$10.39	46% 3282-3819 (7101)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Downavg 94.3¢	$14.15	$15	+$0.85	49% 1742-1781 (3523)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$18.47	$37	+$18.53	51% 2181-2090 (4271)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 48¢	$9.59	$19.98	+$10.39	60% 4239-2880 (7119)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 70.5¢	$10.4	—	-$10.4	67% 3966-1997 (5963)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 32¢	$2.88	$9	+$6.12	51% 1133-1071 (2204)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 53¢	$5.96	$4	+$3.68	48% 2440-2688 (5128)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 62¢	$3.15	$5.08	+$1.93	40% 1734-2647 (4381)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$2.7	—	-$2.7	50% 2835-2829 (5664)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$0.87	—	-$0.87	38% 783-1281 (2064)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$2.21

Record

60%

609-408 (1017)

Both legs:

Down$658.3150¢+$670.16

Up$659.8150¢-$667.95

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$510.8

Value

$500.02

PnL

+$8.8

Record

54%

4218-3562 (7780)

Both legs:

Down$248.3849.7¢+$253.9

Up$246.1249.2¢-$245.1

asdcaxz

Down

Invested

$194.37

Value

$207.91

PnL

+$15.41

Record

50%

4592-4670 (9262)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$85.51

Value

$83

PnL

-$2.51

Record

49%

3629-3730 (7359)

Both legs:

Invested

$63.84

Value

$74.35

PnL

+$10.51

Record

47%

1695-1948 (3643)

Both legs:

Invested

$46.82

Value

$59

PnL

+$12.18

Record

44%

2407-3121 (5528)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$56.28

Value

$56.91

PnL

+$0.63

Record

98%

4498-92 (4590)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$45.77

Value

$45.52

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

2708-2292 (5000)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$66.98

Value

—

PnL

-$30.3

Record

51%

2540-2400 (4940)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$28.85

Value

$45.26

PnL

+$16.41

Record

48%

2544-2786 (5330)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$30.82

Value

$40.31

PnL

+$9.49

Record

52%

3043-2759 (5802)

soswald1<$100

Down

Invested

$27.1

Value

$40

PnL

+$12.9

Record

52%

3858-3579 (7437)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$21.21

Value

—

PnL

-$21.21

Record

58%

5191-3834 (9025)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$18.28

Value

$14.56

PnL

-$3.72

Record

48%

2518-2730 (5248)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$13.77

Value

$17.43

PnL

+$3.66

Record

62%

4631-2815 (7446)

suntori<$100

Down

Invested

$4.67

Value

$15.06

PnL

+$10.39

Record

46%

3282-3819 (7101)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Down

Invested

$14.15

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.85

Record

49%

1742-1781 (3523)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$18.47

Value

$37

PnL

+$18.53

Record

51%

2181-2090 (4271)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$9.59

Value

$19.98

PnL

+$10.39

Record

60%

4239-2880 (7119)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$10.4

Value

—

PnL

-$10.4

Record

67%

3966-1997 (5963)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$2.88

Value

PnL

+$6.12

Record

51%

1133-1071 (2204)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$5.96

Value

PnL

+$3.68

Record

48%

2440-2688 (5128)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$3.15

Value

$5.08

PnL

+$1.93

Record

40%

1734-2647 (4381)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

—

PnL

-$2.7

Record

50%

2835-2829 (5664)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

—

PnL

-$0.87

Record

38%

783-1281 (2064)

Smart Money Signal

7 of 23 top traders (30%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%21 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x28a28575...a9a0b6

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794763500

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

asdcaxz

Down — $207.91

+$15.41

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

rabadabadoo

Arbitrage — excluded

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $59

+$12.18

hoodquant

Down — $56.91

+$0.63

ply-pm2

Down — $45.52

-$0.25

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$30.3

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $45.26

+$16.41

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