Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 77%
3 arb excluded
$3.2K
$303.9
Smart Money Signal
17 of 22 top traders (77%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$1.6 | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $628.44 | $1.3K | +$663.38 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $633.67 | — | -$664.98 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 38.8¢ | $848.38 | $576.18 | -$272.21 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.8¢ | $542.37 | — | -$542.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 53.1¢ | $306.01 | $576.18 | +$270.16 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $529.77 | $492.7 | +$5.6 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $248.28 | $492.7 | +$254.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245.04 | — | -$249.2 | |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $156 | $145 | +$7.93 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 50.1¢ | $91.39 | $140.19 | +$59.02 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 65.6¢ | $58.6 | $56.81 | -$1.8 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
MO mo-money | Upavg 54¢ | $81 | $149.99 | +$69 | 52% 1673-1561 (3234) |
AL almach | Upavg 55¢ | $82.49 | $149.99 | +$67.5 | 51% 1661-1571 (3232) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $34.73 | $49.99 | +$15.27 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $35.68 | $32 | -$3.68 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $35.17 | $65.13 | +$29.96 | 51% 4911-4688 (9599) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 80.2¢ | $41.87 | $23.11 | -$5.49 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 77.3¢ | $15.45 | $20 | +$4.55 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $5.02 | $20.06 | +$15.04 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $9.6 | $14 | +$4.4 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $6.05 | $17.29 | +$11.24 | 60% 4239-2880 (7119) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 48.4¢ | $6.82 | $14.11 | +$7.29 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 58% 5191-3834 (9025) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $1.85 | $5.61 | +$3.76 | 65% 2817-1530 (4347) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $5 | +$1.95 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1488-2638 (4126) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $34.8 | — | +$28.56 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.7¢ | $6.79 | — | -$6.79 | 47% 1695-1948 (3643) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.2 | — | -$5.2 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$1.6
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Both legs:
Invested
$848.38
Value
$576.18
PnL
-$272.21
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Both legs:
Invested
$529.77
Value
$492.7
PnL
+$5.6
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$156
Value
$145
PnL
+$7.93
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$91.39
Value
$140.19
PnL
+$59.02
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$58.6
Value
$56.81
PnL
-$1.8
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$81
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$69
Record
52%
1673-1561 (3234)
Invested
$82.49
Value
$149.99
PnL
+$67.5
Record
51%
1661-1571 (3232)
Invested
$34.73
Value
$49.99
PnL
+$15.27
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$35.68
Value
$32
PnL
-$3.68
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$35.17
Value
$65.13
PnL
+$29.96
Record
51%
4911-4688 (9599)
Invested
$41.87
Value
$23.11
PnL
-$5.49
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
ohioism<$100Invested
$15.45
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.55
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$5.02
Value
$20.06
PnL
+$15.04
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$14
PnL
+$4.4
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$17.29
PnL
+$11.24
Record
60%
4239-2880 (7119)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.82
Value
$14.11
PnL
+$7.29
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
58%
5191-3834 (9025)
Invested
$1.85
Value
$5.61
PnL
+$3.76
Record
65%
2817-1530 (4347)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
Invested
$3.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.95
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1488-2638 (4126)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$34.8
Value
—
PnL
+$28.56
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$6.79
Value
—
PnL
-$6.79
Record
47%
1695-1948 (3643)
Invested
$5.2
Value
—
PnL
-$5.2
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Up — $145
asdcaxz
Up — $140.19
ply-pm2
Up — $56.81
mo-money
Up — $149.99
almach
Up — $149.99
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $49.99
asdaefef
Up — $32