Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 41%
3 arb excluded
$1.7K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 22 top traders (41%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $508.3 | $494.33 | -$3.66 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$247.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $250.36 | $494.33 | +$244.04 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 57.1¢ | $147.44 | $226.68 | +$113.52 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
BL blue.birds | Upavg 45¢ | $189.99 | $210.4 | +$26.18 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $278.19 | $281 | +$2.81 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $105 | -$19.66 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $67.5 | — | -$68.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $52.5 | $105 | +$48.74 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $109.89 | $111 | +$1.11 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $80.55 | $67.8 | -$12.74 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.2¢ | $29.27 | $67.8 | +$38.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $51.27 | — | -$51.27 | |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $27.86 | $44.28 | +$21.98 | 47% 1695-1948 (3643) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $98.85 | $30 | +$7.05 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 16.1¢ | $3.21 | $19.9 | +$16.69 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $23.82 | $23 | -$0.82 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 12¢ | $5.8 | — | -$5.8 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 80.1¢ | $22.03 | $17.2 | -$4.83 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 25.2¢ | $14.22 | — | -$6.52 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $4.32 | $8 | +$3.68 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 82¢ | $7.22 | $7.89 | +$0.67 | 49% 3629-3730 (7359) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 15.9¢ | $3.67 | $11.76 | +$8.09 | 65% 2817-1530 (4347) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $10.4 | — | -$10.4 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 59% 1161-811 (1972) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 5¢ | $1.37 | — | -$1.37 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 24¢ | $1.5 | — | -$1.5 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 6.8¢ | $10.16 | — | -$10.16 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $22.31 | — | -$22.31 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $11.2 | — | -$11.2 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Invested
$508.3
Value
$494.33
PnL
-$3.66
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$147.44
Value
$226.68
PnL
+$113.52
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$189.99
Value
$210.4
PnL
+$26.18
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$278.19
Value
$281
PnL
+$2.81
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$150
Value
$105
PnL
-$19.66
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.89
Value
$111
PnL
+$1.11
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$80.55
Value
$67.8
PnL
-$12.74
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.86
Value
$44.28
PnL
+$21.98
Record
47%
1695-1948 (3643)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$98.85
Value
$30
PnL
+$7.05
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$3.21
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$16.69
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$23
PnL
-$0.82
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$5.8
Value
—
PnL
-$5.8
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
Invested
$22.03
Value
$17.2
PnL
-$4.83
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$14.22
Value
—
PnL
-$6.52
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.32
Value
$8
PnL
+$3.68
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$7.22
Value
$7.89
PnL
+$0.67
Record
49%
3629-3730 (7359)
Invested
$3.67
Value
$11.76
PnL
+$8.09
Record
65%
2817-1530 (4347)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$10.4
Value
—
PnL
-$10.4
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
59%
1161-811 (1972)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.37
Value
—
PnL
-$1.37
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
—
PnL
-$1.5
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.16
Value
—
PnL
-$10.16
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
Invested
$22.31
Value
—
PnL
-$22.31
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$11.2
Value
—
PnL
-$11.2
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $226.68
blue.birds
Up — $210.4
hoodquant
Up — $281
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $111
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
rabadabadoo
Up — $44.28
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $30