Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 45%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | $490.01 | -$3.5 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $245 | $490.01 | +$246.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $150 | +$6.9 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | $150 | +$75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $67.5 | — | -$68.1 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $99.93 | $100.94 | +$1.01 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 95.6¢ | $58.57 | $61.3 | +$2.73 | 34% 1232-2436 (3668) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $58.22 | $116 | +$57.78 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 79.1¢ | $51.98 | $57.22 | +$5.24 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $31.68 | $33 | +$1.32 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.4¢ | $22.63 | — | -$22.63 | 58% 5191-3834 (9025) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $17.39 | — | -$17.39 | 60% 4239-2880 (7119) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.6 | $19.59 | +$9.99 | 49% 215-223 (438) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $5.82 | $6 | +$0.18 | 42% 2086-2846 (4932) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $5.6 | $11.15 | +$5.55 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 65¢ | $2.52 | $2.3 | -$0.22 | 52% 5189-4868 (10057) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $3.44 | $2.25 | -$1.19 | 53% 1595-1405 (3000) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 39.3¢ | $9.04 | — | -$9.04 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $23 | — | -$23 | 51% 1133-1071 (2204) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $17.34 | — | -$17.34 | 48% 1498-1615 (3113) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Invested
$500
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$3.5
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
$150
PnL
+$6.9
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Both legs:
Invested
$99.93
Value
$100.94
PnL
+$1.01
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$58.57
Value
$61.3
PnL
+$2.73
Record
34%
1232-2436 (3668)
Invested
$58.22
Value
$116
PnL
+$57.78
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$51.98
Value
$57.22
PnL
+$5.24
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$31.68
Value
$33
PnL
+$1.32
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
Invested
$22.63
Value
—
PnL
-$22.63
Record
58%
5191-3834 (9025)
Invested
$17.39
Value
—
PnL
-$17.39
Record
60%
4239-2880 (7119)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$9.6
Value
$19.59
PnL
+$9.99
Record
49%
215-223 (438)
Invested
$5.82
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.18
Record
42%
2086-2846 (4932)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$11.15
PnL
+$5.55
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.22
Record
52%
5189-4868 (10057)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$2.25
PnL
-$1.19
Record
53%
1595-1405 (3000)
Invested
$9.04
Value
—
PnL
-$9.04
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$23
Value
—
PnL
-$23
Record
51%
1133-1071 (2204)
Invested
$17.34
Value
—
PnL
-$17.34
Record
48%
1498-1615 (3113)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $100.94
pspspsps5
Up — $61.3
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $116
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $57.22
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $33
Hcrystallash
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
CTRDown — $0