Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 57% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
21
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$7.9K
$27.25
Smart Money Signal
12 of 21 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.3K | $5.4K | +$54.03 | 53% 1595-1405 (3000) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$17.85 | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $500.86 | $500 | +$4.23 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $245.87 | — | -$245.77 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $263.84 | $267 | +$3.16 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 87.2¢ | $144.8 | $166 | +$21.2 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $41 | $50 | +$9 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $26.3 | $35 | +$8.7 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 71.2¢ | $17.02 | $23.92 | +$6.9 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $20.13 | $23 | +$2.87 | 40% 1734-2647 (4381) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.2¢ | $21.32 | — | -$21.32 | 47% 1695-1948 (3643) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $12.05 | $15 | +$3.87 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $12.6 | $18 | +$5.4 | 58% 5191-3834 (9025) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $11.41 | — | -$11.41 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 53.6¢ | $6.27 | $11.7 | +$5.43 | 51% 1133-1071 (2204) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $4.25 | $5.31 | +$1.06 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 24¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 36¢ | $132.97 | — | -$9.24 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.1¢ | $40 | — | -$40 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $21.39 | — | -$21.39 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $3.7 | — | -$3.7 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $2.96 | — | -$2.96 | 44% 2407-3121 (5528) |
Invested
$5,349.03
Value
$5.4K
PnL
+$54.03
Record
53%
1595-1405 (3000)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$17.85
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Invested
$500.86
Value
$500
PnL
+$4.23
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$263.84
Value
$267
PnL
+$3.16
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Invested
$144.8
Value
$166
PnL
+$21.2
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$41
Value
$50
PnL
+$9
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$26.3
Value
$35
PnL
+$8.7
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$17.02
Value
$23.92
PnL
+$6.9
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$20.13
Value
$23
PnL
+$2.87
Record
40%
1734-2647 (4381)
Invested
$21.32
Value
—
PnL
-$21.32
Record
47%
1695-1948 (3643)
Invested
$12.05
Value
$15
PnL
+$3.87
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$18
PnL
+$5.4
Record
58%
5191-3834 (9025)
Invested
$11.41
Value
—
PnL
-$11.41
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
Invested
$6.27
Value
$11.7
PnL
+$5.43
Record
51%
1133-1071 (2204)
Invested
$4.25
Value
$5.31
PnL
+$1.06
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$132.97
Value
—
PnL
-$9.24
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Invested
$40
Value
—
PnL
-$40
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$21.39
Value
—
PnL
-$21.39
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.7
Value
—
PnL
-$3.7
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.96
Value
—
PnL
-$2.96
Record
44%
2407-3121 (5528)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $5.4K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $267
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $166
asdcaxz
Down — $50
soswald1
Down — $35
ply-pm2
Down — $23.92
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $23
rabadabadoo
CTRUp — $0