Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Up 65%
3 arb excluded
$2.7K
$15.85
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$0.1 | 60% 609-408 (1017) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $717.25 | $1.4K | +$731.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $716.95 | — | -$730.95 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $502.25 | $500 | +$1.5 | 54% 4218-3562 (7780) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $247.3 | — | -$248.5 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 72.5¢ | $254.06 | $279.02 | +$36.71 | 49% 2495-2563 (5058) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $91.54 | $82.45 | -$3.09 | 50% 4592-4670 (9262) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $104.94 | $106 | +$1.06 | 98% 4498-92 (4590) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 69.5¢ | $57.87 | $65.41 | +$7.54 | 51% 2540-2400 (4940) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.5¢ | $45.47 | $65.41 | +$19.94 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19.1¢ | $12.4 | — | -$12.4 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 60¢ | $43.76 | $72.98 | +$29.22 | 51% 2181-2090 (4271) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $31.33 | $36.58 | +$5.25 | 54% 2708-2292 (5000) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $26.25 | $35.36 | +$9.11 | 52% 3858-3579 (7437) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $25 | — | -$25 | 51% 1133-1071 (2204) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.7¢ | $18.91 | — | -$18.91 | 48% 2440-2688 (5128) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 74.7¢ | $23.15 | $11.13 | -$5.48 | 62% 4631-2815 (7446) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 20¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 48% 2518-2730 (5248) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $6.3 | — | -$6.3 | 48% 2544-2786 (5330) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.2¢ | $7.58 | — | -$7.58 | 47% 1695-1948 (3643) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93.9¢ | $10.49 | $11.17 | +$0.68 | 67% 3966-1997 (5963) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $9.99 | +$5.2 | 50% 972-964 (1936) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $4.86 | $6 | +$1.14 | 52% 3043-2759 (5802) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 50% 2835-2829 (5664) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $3.72 | $2.21 | +$0.83 | 46% 3282-3819 (7101) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0.1
Record
60%
609-408 (1017)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.25
Value
$500
PnL
+$1.5
Record
54%
4218-3562 (7780)
Both legs:
Invested
$254.06
Value
$279.02
PnL
+$36.71
Record
49%
2495-2563 (5058)
Invested
$91.54
Value
$82.45
PnL
-$3.09
Record
50%
4592-4670 (9262)
Invested
$104.94
Value
$106
PnL
+$1.06
Record
98%
4498-92 (4590)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$57.87
Value
$65.41
PnL
+$7.54
Record
51%
2540-2400 (4940)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.76
Value
$72.98
PnL
+$29.22
Record
51%
2181-2090 (4271)
Invested
$31.33
Value
$36.58
PnL
+$5.25
Record
54%
2708-2292 (5000)
Invested
$26.25
Value
$35.36
PnL
+$9.11
Record
52%
3858-3579 (7437)
Invested
$25
Value
—
PnL
-$25
Record
51%
1133-1071 (2204)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$18.91
Value
—
PnL
-$18.91
Record
48%
2440-2688 (5128)
Invested
$23.15
Value
$11.13
PnL
-$5.48
Record
62%
4631-2815 (7446)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
48%
2518-2730 (5248)
Invested
$6.3
Value
—
PnL
-$6.3
Record
48%
2544-2786 (5330)
Invested
$7.58
Value
—
PnL
-$7.58
Record
47%
1695-1948 (3643)
Invested
$10.49
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$0.68
Record
67%
3966-1997 (5963)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$9.99
PnL
+$5.2
Record
50%
972-964 (1936)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.86
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.14
Record
52%
3043-2759 (5802)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
2835-2829 (5664)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0.83
Record
46%
3282-3819 (7101)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Up — $279.02
asdcaxz
Up — $82.45
hoodquant
Up — $106
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $72.98
ply-pm2
Up — $36.58
soswald1
Up — $35.36
Little-big
CTRDown — $0