Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 7 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET

7 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (35%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 35%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$84.88

Smart Money Entry

37.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,132

Combined PnL-$98.09

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,075

Combined PnL+$13.21

Up — 35%Down — 65%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$1.98	60% 595-399 (994)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.7¢	$508.5	$499.17	+$1.95	54% 4162-3504 (7666)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$241.3	$243.87	+$2.57	98% 4434-91 (4525)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$150	$138.5	+$1.2	52% 3806-3541 (7347)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$72.5	$107.3	+$35.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$60	$31.2	-$34.65
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 76.4¢	$76.29	$62.23	-$4.77	50% 4548-4636 (9184)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 79.2¢	$134	$56	+$13.18	51% 2506-2369 (4875)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$44.3	$44.72	+$0.42	40% 1709-2617 (4326)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 84.5¢	$33.72	$34.9	+$1.18	34% 1215-2411 (3626)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$26.71	$26.2	+$0.69	46% 1673-1927 (3600)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74.5¢	$25.88	$25.85	-$0.03	54% 2675-2263 (4938)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$21.88	$21.6	-$0.29	52% 2997-2745 (5742)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$18.5	$15.53	-$2.97	48% 2484-2691 (5175)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 10.1¢	$7.94	$14.49	+$6.54	52% 5172-4852 (10024)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 83¢	$10.4	$10.34	-$0.06	60% 4192-2848 (7040)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 21.8¢	$7.2	$6.7	-$0.5	48% 2407-2652 (5059)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 43¢	$3.5	$5	+$1.5	48% 2509-2762 (5271)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 51¢	$5.1	$4.95	-$0.15	51% 1119-1061 (2180)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.26	$2.33	+$0.07	50% 955-949 (1904)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$1.92	$1.79	-$0.13	70% 1807-771 (2578)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1.14	$1.05	-$0.09	42% 2048-2798 (4846)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 15.4¢	$102.34	$0.33	-$102.01	49% 2456-2514 (4970)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$1.98

Record

60%

595-399 (994)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$508.5

Value

$499.17

PnL

+$1.95

Record

54%

4162-3504 (7666)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$241.3

Value

$243.87

PnL

+$2.57

Record

98%

4434-91 (4525)

soswald1ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$150

Value

$138.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

3806-3541 (7347)

Both legs:

Invested

$76.29

Value

$62.23

PnL

-$4.77

Record

50%

4548-4636 (9184)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$134

Value

$56

PnL

+$13.18

Record

51%

2506-2369 (4875)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$44.3

Value

$44.72

PnL

+$0.42

Record

40%

1709-2617 (4326)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$33.72

Value

$34.9

PnL

+$1.18

Record

34%

1215-2411 (3626)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$26.71

Value

$26.2

PnL

+$0.69

Record

46%

1673-1927 (3600)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$25.88

Value

$25.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

54%

2675-2263 (4938)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$21.88

Value

$21.6

PnL

-$0.29

Record

52%

2997-2745 (5742)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$18.5

Value

$15.53

PnL

-$2.97

Record

48%

2484-2691 (5175)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$7.94

Value

$14.49

PnL

+$6.54

Record

52%

5172-4852 (10024)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$10.4

Value

$10.34

PnL

-$0.06

Record

60%

4192-2848 (7040)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.7

PnL

-$0.5

Record

48%

2407-2652 (5059)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

+$1.5

Record

48%

2509-2762 (5271)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$5.1

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

1119-1061 (2180)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$2.26

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

955-949 (1904)

BoneOhioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.13

Record

70%

1807-771 (2578)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.09

Record

42%

2048-2798 (4846)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$102.34

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$102.01

Record

49%

2456-2514 (4970)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 20 top traders (35%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.