Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET
Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 50%
$1.1K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 595-399 (994) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.5¢ | $382.66 | $388.38 | +$5.72 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $93.12 | $78 | +$10.02 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $30.15 | $33.88 | +$3.73 | 60% 4192-2848 (7040) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 54.8¢ | $24.09 | — | -$24.09 | 51% 1119-1061 (2180) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 78.6¢ | $18.66 | $23.11 | +$4.45 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $15.25 | — | -$15.25 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $12.9 | — | -$12.9 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $5.28 | $12 | +$6.72 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $12.06 | $11 | -$1.02 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 82.8¢ | $9.24 | $11.16 | +$1.92 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $4.46 | $5 | +$0.54 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.3¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.2¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.5¢ | $34.16 | — | -$4.46 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.3¢ | $6.98 | — | -$6.98 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 11¢ | $25.57 | — | -$25.57 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$382.66
Value
$388.38
PnL
+$5.72
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$93.12
Value
$78
PnL
+$10.02
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$30.15
Value
$33.88
PnL
+$3.73
Record
60%
4192-2848 (7040)
Invested
$24.09
Value
—
PnL
-$24.09
Record
51%
1119-1061 (2180)
Invested
$18.66
Value
$23.11
PnL
+$4.45
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
Invested
$15.25
Value
—
PnL
-$15.25
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$12.9
Value
—
PnL
-$12.9
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$5.28
Value
$12
PnL
+$6.72
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Invested
$12.06
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.02
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$9.24
Value
$11.16
PnL
+$1.92
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$4.46
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.54
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$34.16
Value
—
PnL
-$4.46
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$6.98
Value
—
PnL
-$6.98
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
Invested
$25.57
Value
—
PnL
-$25.57
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
hoodquant
Up — $388.38
asdcaxz
Up — $78
aaa221
Up — $33.88
Little-big
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $23.11
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRDown — $0
Hcrystallash
Up — $12