Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 55%
3 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$95.3
Smart Money Signal
12 of 22 top traders (55%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$1.26 | 60% 595-399 (994) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $691.56 | $1.4K | +$716 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $691.21 | — | -$717.26 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $501.12 | $500 | +$0.7 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.2¢ | $246.2 | — | -$249.3 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $64.82 | $75 | +$19.7 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.2¢ | $37.69 | $75 | +$41.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 23.1¢ | $22.1 | — | -$22.1 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 86.6¢ | $74.81 | $52.56 | -$22.25 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $50.49 | $51 | +$0.51 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $32.44 | $65 | +$32.56 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $59.24 | $26.25 | -$3.79 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $15.03 | $17.97 | +$6.43 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $12.52 | $14.99 | +$2.48 | 46% 1673-1927 (3600) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 91.6¢ | $15.99 | $15.01 | -$0.98 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $14.1 | $15 | +$0.9 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $9.29 | $10.8 | +$1.51 | 70% 1807-771 (2578) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.2¢ | $2.68 | — | -$2.68 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $6.4 | $10 | +$3.6 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $1.51 | — | -$1.51 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $2.07 | — | -$2.07 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.7 | — | -$1.7 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $0.48 | — | -$0.48 | 42% 2048-2798 (4846) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 22.9¢ | $77.6 | — | -$77.6 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $14 | — | -$14 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 22.9¢ | $4.81 | — | -$4.81 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 27.3¢ | $3.05 | — | -$3.05 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
BO BonereaperCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $5.61 | — | -$5.61 | 59% 1150-796 (1946) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$1.26
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Both legs:
Invested
$501.12
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.7
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$64.82
Value
$75
PnL
+$19.7
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Both legs:
Invested
$74.81
Value
$52.56
PnL
-$22.25
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$50.49
Value
$51
PnL
+$0.51
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$32.44
Value
$65
PnL
+$32.56
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$59.24
Value
$26.25
PnL
-$3.79
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$15.03
Value
$17.97
PnL
+$6.43
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Invested
$12.52
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$2.48
Record
46%
1673-1927 (3600)
Invested
$15.99
Value
$15.01
PnL
-$0.98
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.1
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.9
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$9.29
Value
$10.8
PnL
+$1.51
Record
70%
1807-771 (2578)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.68
Value
—
PnL
-$2.68
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.6
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.51
Value
—
PnL
-$1.51
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)
Invested
$2.07
Value
—
PnL
-$2.07
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$1.7
Value
—
PnL
-$1.7
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
Invested
$0.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
42%
2048-2798 (4846)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$77.6
Value
—
PnL
-$77.6
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Invested
$14
Value
—
PnL
-$14
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Invested
$4.81
Value
—
PnL
-$4.81
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
Invested
$3.05
Value
—
PnL
-$3.05
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$5.61
Value
—
PnL
-$5.61
Record
59%
1150-796 (1946)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $52.56
hoodquant
Up — $51
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $65
ply-pm2
Up — $26.25
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $17.97
rabadabadoo
Up — $14.99
asdaefef
Up — $15.01