Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Up 63%
1 arb excluded
$1.8K
-$749.06
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.47 | 60% 595-399 (994) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $717.06 | $1.4K | +$730.17 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $719.47 | — | -$726.7 | |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $241.18 | $244 | +$2.82 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | — | -$150 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $78.45 | $91 | +$12.55 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $44.06 | — | -$44.06 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $59.03 | — | -$37.06 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $12.22 | $15 | +$2.78 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $8.75 | — | -$8.75 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $2.18 | $5.45 | +$3.27 | 46% 1673-1927 (3600) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $5 | +$2.85 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.5¢ | $3.05 | — | -$3.05 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.8¢ | $0.42 | — | -$0.42 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.92 | — | -$0.92 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $28.03 | — | -$28.03 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.47
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$241.18
Value
$244
PnL
+$2.82
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$150
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$78.45
Value
$91
PnL
+$12.55
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$44.06
Value
—
PnL
-$44.06
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$59.03
Value
—
PnL
-$37.06
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$12.22
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.78
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.75
Value
—
PnL
-$8.75
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$2.18
Value
$5.45
PnL
+$3.27
Record
46%
1673-1927 (3600)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.85
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$3.05
Value
—
PnL
-$3.05
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.42
Value
—
PnL
-$0.42
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$0.92
Value
—
PnL
-$0.92
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Invested
$28.03
Value
—
PnL
-$28.03
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $244
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
Down — $91
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $15
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $10