Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Down 27%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
6 of 22 top traders (27%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 60% 595-399 (994) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.6¢ | $809.39 | $820.93 | +$11.54 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.1¢ | $520.24 | $500 | +$3.31 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $249.06 | $500 | +$252.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.1¢ | $251.2 | — | -$248.99 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 26.7¢ | $388.49 | — | -$346.46 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 55.2¢ | $118.73 | $162.26 | +$43.53 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $79.55 | $84.96 | +$5.41 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
 G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $61.2 | $86.68 | +$25.48 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39¢ | $33.81 | $86.68 | +$52.87 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.2¢ | $27.38 | — | -$27.38 | |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 43.5¢ | $43.32 | $64.4 | +$26.79 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $27.38 | $61 | +$33.62 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $76.99 | $62.8 | +$7.06 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $19.8 | $39.62 | +$19.82 | 49% 209-220 (429) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 46.5¢ | $38.25 | $50 | +$11.75 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $4.86 | — | -$4.86 | 53% 1576-1397 (2973) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 51.5¢ | $34.99 | $68 | +$33.01 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 94.7¢ | $31.15 | $31 | +$0.09 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 75.7¢ | $23.82 | $25.71 | +$2.26 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 56¢ | $14.33 | $25.6 | +$11.27 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 49.8¢ | $16.76 | — | -$16.76 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 38.8¢ | $16.75 | $19.96 | +$6.93 | 46% 1673-1927 (3600) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $17.7 | $15.18 | -$2.52 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $11.31 | $29 | +$17.69 | 51% 1119-1061 (2180) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 56.9¢ | $7.35 | — | -$7.35 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $5.4 | $15 | +$9.6 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 48% 1480-1593 (3073) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Invested
$809.39
Value
$820.93
PnL
+$11.54
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$520.24
Value
$500
PnL
+$3.31
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Invested
$388.49
Value
—
PnL
-$346.46
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Invested
$118.73
Value
$162.26
PnL
+$43.53
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$79.55
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$5.41
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
G-Penis-MonsterARB<$100Invested
$61.2
Value
$86.68
PnL
+$25.48
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.32
Value
$64.4
PnL
+$26.79
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$27.38
Value
$61
PnL
+$33.62
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Invested
$76.99
Value
$62.8
PnL
+$7.06
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$39.62
PnL
+$19.82
Record
49%
209-220 (429)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$38.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$11.75
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$4.86
Value
—
PnL
-$4.86
Record
53%
1576-1397 (2973)
Invested
$34.99
Value
$68
PnL
+$33.01
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$31.15
Value
$31
PnL
+$0.09
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
Invested
$23.82
Value
$25.71
PnL
+$2.26
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$14.33
Value
$25.6
PnL
+$11.27
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Invested
$16.76
Value
—
PnL
-$16.76
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$19.96
PnL
+$6.93
Record
46%
1673-1927 (3600)
Invested
$17.7
Value
$15.18
PnL
-$2.52
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$11.31
Value
$29
PnL
+$17.69
Record
51%
1119-1061 (2180)
Invested
$7.35
Value
—
PnL
-$7.35
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
ohioism<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$15
PnL
+$9.6
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
48%
1480-1593 (3073)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $820.93
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
asdcaxz
Up — $162.26
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $84.96
G-Penis-Monster
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
Up — $64.4
Hcrystallash
Up — $61
ply-pm2
Up — $62.8