Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 55%
2 arb excluded
$3.1K
-$46.47
Smart Money Signal
11 of 20 top traders (55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$4.99 | 60% 595-399 (994) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $715.69 | $1.4K | +$736.9 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $714.42 | — | -$731.91 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $616.71 | $624 | +$7.29 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $506.8 | $500 | +$5.14 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 77.6¢ | $289.99 | $267.35 | -$22.64 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $125 | -$3.35 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $62.5 | $125 | +$71.65 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $75 | — | -$75 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 74.6¢ | $34.29 | $45.98 | +$11.7 | 60% 4192-2848 (7040) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $21.35 | $35 | +$13.65 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $28.01 | $28.21 | +$0.2 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 44.6¢ | $51.62 | — | -$51.62 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $15.31 | $18 | +$2.69 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $10.14 | $11.45 | +$1.31 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.71 | — | -$1.71 | 53% 1576-1397 (2973) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $9.9 | $15 | +$5.1 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.31 | — | -$1.31 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $6.05 | — | -$6.05 | 46% 1673-1927 (3600) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $2.04 | — | -$2.04 | 42% 2048-2798 (4846) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $5 | +$1.4 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $1.4 | $2.86 | +$1.46 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $10.25 | — | -$0.53 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.5¢ | $3.89 | — | -$3.89 | 40% 1709-2617 (4326) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $4.76 | — | -$4.76 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.86 | — | -$1.86 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$4.99
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Both legs:
Invested
$616.71
Value
$624
PnL
+$7.29
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$506.8
Value
$500
PnL
+$5.14
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Invested
$289.99
Value
$267.35
PnL
-$22.64
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Invested
$150
Value
$125
PnL
-$3.35
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.29
Value
$45.98
PnL
+$11.7
Record
60%
4192-2848 (7040)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$21.35
Value
$35
PnL
+$13.65
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
Invested
$28.01
Value
$28.21
PnL
+$0.2
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$51.62
Value
—
PnL
-$51.62
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$15.31
Value
$18
PnL
+$2.69
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$11.45
PnL
+$1.31
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Invested
$1.71
Value
—
PnL
-$1.71
Record
53%
1576-1397 (2973)
Invested
$9.9
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.1
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.31
Value
—
PnL
-$1.31
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)
Invested
$6.05
Value
—
PnL
-$6.05
Record
46%
1673-1927 (3600)
Invested
$2.04
Value
—
PnL
-$2.04
Record
42%
2048-2798 (4846)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.4
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$2.86
PnL
+$1.46
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$10.25
Value
—
PnL
-$0.53
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.89
Value
—
PnL
-$3.89
Record
40%
1709-2617 (4326)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$4.76
Value
—
PnL
-$4.76
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$1.86
Value
—
PnL
-$1.86
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $624
ByteBadger92
Down — $500
uninformedfloww
Down — $267.35
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $45.98
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $35
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $28.21
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
MayorMamdani
Down — $18