Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 65%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$295.48
Smart Money Signal
13 of 20 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.2K | +$5.2 | 60% 595-399 (994) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $537.88 | $538.28 | +$0.4 | 49% 2456-2514 (4970) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.4¢ | $282.08 | $538.28 | +$256.2 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $255.8 | — | -$255.8 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $506.61 | $495.69 | -$0.25 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.7¢ | $246.43 | $495.69 | +$249.99 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $250.24 | — | -$250.24 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Upavg 46.5¢ | $115.93 | — | -$115.93 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 59.2¢ | $134.37 | — | -$128.49 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 42.3¢ | $101.58 | — | -$92.43 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $25.6 | $50 | +$24.4 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $48.86 | $47.79 | -$0.83 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 44.9¢ | $31.4 | $70 | +$38.6 | 44% 2374-3081 (5455) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 55.3¢ | $29.17 | $32.95 | +$4.86 | 46% 1673-1927 (3600) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 57.3¢ | $30.62 | — | -$30.08 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $15.64 | $17.57 | +$1.93 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $16.02 | $30 | +$13.98 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.82 | $15.51 | +$0.69 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.5¢ | $6.61 | — | -$6.61 | 34% 1215-2411 (3626) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $67.69 | $5 | -$0.2 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $5.28 | $6 | +$0.72 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $1.86 | $5.47 | +$3.61 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 58% 5174-3818 (8992) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $19.38 | — | -$19.38 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $2.8 | $6.36 | +$3.56 | 65% 2772-1511 (4283) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.9¢ | $1.54 | — | -$1.54 | 50% 2795-2794 (5589) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$5.2
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Invested
$537.88
Value
$538.28
PnL
+$0.4
Record
49%
2456-2514 (4970)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.61
Value
$495.69
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.93
Value
—
PnL
-$115.93
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$134.37
Value
—
PnL
-$128.49
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$101.58
Value
—
PnL
-$92.43
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$25.6
Value
$50
PnL
+$24.4
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
Invested
$48.86
Value
$47.79
PnL
-$0.83
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$31.4
Value
$70
PnL
+$38.6
Record
44%
2374-3081 (5455)
Invested
$29.17
Value
$32.95
PnL
+$4.86
Record
46%
1673-1927 (3600)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$30.62
Value
—
PnL
-$30.08
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
Invested
$15.64
Value
$17.57
PnL
+$1.93
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Invested
$16.02
Value
$30
PnL
+$13.98
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$15.51
PnL
+$0.69
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$6.61
Value
—
PnL
-$6.61
Record
34%
1215-2411 (3626)
Invested
$67.69
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.72
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$3.61
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
58%
5174-3818 (8992)
Invested
$19.38
Value
—
PnL
-$19.38
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$6.36
PnL
+$3.56
Record
65%
2772-1511 (4283)
Invested
$1.54
Value
—
PnL
-$1.54
Record
50%
2795-2794 (5589)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.2K
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $50
soswald1
Down — $47.79
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $70
rabadabadoo
Down — $32.95