Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 41% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
17
Down 41%
$994.24
$-2.0K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 17 top traders (41%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 60% 595-399 (994) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.9¢ | $785.62 | $793.98 | +$8.36 | 98% 4434-91 (4525) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | 54% 4162-3504 (7666) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $34.5 | $50 | +$15.5 | 48% 2407-2652 (5059) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 62.5¢ | $25.93 | $41.47 | +$15.54 | 51% 2151-2062 (4213) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $34.02 | $30.2 | -$3.82 | 53% 1576-1397 (2973) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 90.6¢ | $27.63 | $30.5 | +$2.87 | 52% 2997-2745 (5742) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $17.15 | — | -$17.15 | 48% 1480-1593 (3073) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $16.59 | $15 | -$1.59 | 49% 3600-3701 (7301) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 72.3¢ | $16.86 | $13 | +$3.5 | 50% 4548-4636 (9184) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 71.5¢ | $9.6 | $10 | +$0.4 | 52% 3806-3541 (7347) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $7.68 | $8 | +$0.32 | 66% 3908-1973 (5881) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $1.96 | $2.09 | +$0.13 | 51% 2506-2369 (4875) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 32.4¢ | $6.53 | — | -$6.53 | 54% 2675-2263 (4938) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $5.32 | — | -$5.32 | 48% 2484-2691 (5175) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $5.46 | — | -$5.46 | 48% 2509-2762 (5271) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.05 | — | -$2.05 | 62% 4574-2778 (7352) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
60%
595-399 (994)
Invested
$785.62
Value
$793.98
PnL
+$8.36
Record
98%
4434-91 (4525)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
54%
4162-3504 (7666)
ohioism<$100Invested
$34.5
Value
$50
PnL
+$15.5
Record
48%
2407-2652 (5059)
Invested
$25.93
Value
$41.47
PnL
+$15.54
Record
51%
2151-2062 (4213)
Invested
$34.02
Value
$30.2
PnL
-$3.82
Record
53%
1576-1397 (2973)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$27.63
Value
$30.5
PnL
+$2.87
Record
52%
2997-2745 (5742)
Invested
$17.15
Value
—
PnL
-$17.15
Record
48%
1480-1593 (3073)
Invested
$16.59
Value
$15
PnL
-$1.59
Record
49%
3600-3701 (7301)
Invested
$16.86
Value
$13
PnL
+$3.5
Record
50%
4548-4636 (9184)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.4
Record
52%
3806-3541 (7347)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.32
Record
66%
3908-1973 (5881)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$1.96
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.13
Record
51%
2506-2369 (4875)
Invested
$6.53
Value
—
PnL
-$6.53
Record
54%
2675-2263 (4938)
Invested
$5.32
Value
—
PnL
-$5.32
Record
48%
2484-2691 (5175)
Invested
$5.46
Value
—
PnL
-$5.46
Record
48%
2509-2762 (5271)
Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
62%
4574-2778 (7352)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $793.98
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $50
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $41.47
0x50f7
Up — $30.2
MayorMamdani
Up — $30.5
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $15
asdcaxz
Up — $13