Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 11 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$5.27

Smart Money Entry

47.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,805

Combined PnL-$14.71

Down11 traders

Total Value$854.81

Total Shares897

Combined PnL+$19.98

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$3.92	60% 584-385 (969)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.5¢	$505.38	$500.96	-$1.55	54% 4094-3445 (7539)
SO soswald1	Downavg 50.4¢	$155.65	$130	-$6.06	52% 3756-3495 (7251)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.4¢	$110.26	$103.04	-$7.22	98% 4362-90 (4452)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$30	$59.38	+$29.39	50% 4512-4591 (9103)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 45.5¢	$59.54	$57.99	-$1.55	49% 3552-3629 (7181)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$50.6	$47.46	-$3.13	51% 2128-2037 (4165)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 47.3¢	$103.09	$32.4	-$4.68	52% 2477-2332 (4809)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 76.9¢	$21.15	$25.44	+$4.29	67% 3861-1939 (5800)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$16.33	$14.25	-$2.08	54% 2644-2228 (4872)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 55.6¢	$11.53	$12.15	+$0.62	46% 1652-1902 (3554)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91¢	$9.1	$9.55	+$0.45	50% 2760-2748 (5508)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 58¢	$7.68	$7.74	+$0.07	60% 4136-2815 (6951)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 25¢	$6.1	$6.92	+$0.82	48% 2474-2726 (5200)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 65¢	$5.94	$5.25	-$0.69	62% 4514-2735 (7249)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 48¢	$4.55	$4.98	+$0.43	48% 2455-2651 (5106)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 6.9¢	$2.56	$1.67	-$0.9	39% 1683-2580 (4263)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 28¢	$1.5	$1.55	+$0.05	65% 2731-1490 (4221)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 11.1¢	$3.72	$1.51	-$2.21	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.55	$1.48	+$0.92	34% 1202-2379 (3581)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.41	+$0.31	53% 1555-1392 (2947)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$5.93	$0.01	-$5.92	48% 2373-2615 (4988)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$3.92

Record

60%

584-385 (969)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$505.38

Value

$500.96

PnL

-$1.55

Record

54%

4094-3445 (7539)

soswald1

Down

Invested

$155.65

Value

$130

PnL

-$6.06

Record

52%

3756-3495 (7251)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$110.26

Value

$103.04

PnL

-$7.22

Record

98%

4362-90 (4452)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

$59.38

PnL

+$29.39

Record

50%

4512-4591 (9103)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$59.54

Value

$57.99

PnL

-$1.55

Record

49%

3552-3629 (7181)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$50.6

Value

$47.46

PnL

-$3.13

Record

51%

2128-2037 (4165)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$103.09

Value

$32.4

PnL

-$4.68

Record

52%

2477-2332 (4809)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$21.15

Value

$25.44

PnL

+$4.29

Record

67%

3861-1939 (5800)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$16.33

Value

$14.25

PnL

-$2.08

Record

54%

2644-2228 (4872)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$11.53

Value

$12.15

PnL

+$0.62

Record

46%

1652-1902 (3554)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$9.1

Value

$9.55

PnL

+$0.45

Record

50%

2760-2748 (5508)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$7.68

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.07

Record

60%

4136-2815 (6951)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$6.1

Value

$6.92

PnL

+$0.82

Record

48%

2474-2726 (5200)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$5.94

Value

$5.25

PnL

-$0.69

Record

62%

4514-2735 (7249)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.98

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

2455-2651 (5106)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$2.56

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.9

Record

39%

1683-2580 (4263)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.05

Record

65%

2731-1490 (4221)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$3.72

Value

$1.51

PnL

-$2.21

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.55

Value

$1.48

PnL

+$0.92

Record

34%

1202-2379 (3581)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

1555-1392 (2947)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$5.93

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.92

Record

48%

2373-2615 (4988)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.