Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Up 42%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 24 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 60% 584-385 (969) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 51.7¢ | $526.68 | $500.65 | -$4.26 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.7¢ | $285.43 | $289.31 | +$3.88 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 16.8¢ | $283.25 | $100.45 | -$182.8 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 77.3¢ | $77.65 | $100.45 | +$22.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.8¢ | $205.6 | — | -$205.6 | |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | — | -$134.73 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 47.2¢ | $69.71 | $96.27 | +$26.56 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 66.4¢ | $71.78 | $70.88 | -$0.9 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $66.75 | $70 | +$3.25 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 81.5¢ | $48.08 | $51.37 | +$3.29 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $42.68 | $44.46 | +$1.78 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $60.28 | — | -$60.28 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88.7¢ | $30.78 | $32.81 | +$2.03 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $24.96 | $32.41 | +$7.45 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95.5¢ | $24.32 | $23 | -$1.32 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 96.9¢ | $22.39 | $22 | -$0.39 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $42.76 | $17 | -$7.68 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $16.79 | — | -$16.79 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $3.3 | $15 | +$11.7 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.8¢ | $56.89 | — | -$10.88 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 30.1¢ | $6.99 | — | -$6.99 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.71 | — | -$4.71 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 21¢ | $1.05 | $5 | +$3.95 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 48% 1464-1570 (3034) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.52 | — | -$0.52 | 38% 762-1253 (2015) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Invested
$526.68
Value
$500.65
PnL
-$4.26
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$285.43
Value
$289.31
PnL
+$3.88
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$283.25
Value
$100.45
PnL
-$182.8
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Both legs:
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$134.73
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Invested
$69.71
Value
$96.27
PnL
+$26.56
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$71.78
Value
$70.88
PnL
-$0.9
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$66.75
Value
$70
PnL
+$3.25
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
Invested
$48.08
Value
$51.37
PnL
+$3.29
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$42.68
Value
$44.46
PnL
+$1.78
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$60.28
Value
—
PnL
-$60.28
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$30.78
Value
$32.81
PnL
+$2.03
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$24.96
Value
$32.41
PnL
+$7.45
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$24.32
Value
$23
PnL
-$1.32
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
Invested
$22.39
Value
$22
PnL
-$0.39
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
Invested
$42.76
Value
$17
PnL
-$7.68
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$16.79
Value
—
PnL
-$16.79
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$15
PnL
+$11.7
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$56.89
Value
—
PnL
-$10.88
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$6.99
Value
—
PnL
-$6.99
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.71
Value
—
PnL
-$4.71
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
Invested
$1.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.95
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
48%
1464-1570 (3034)
Invested
$0.52
Value
—
PnL
-$0.52
Record
38%
762-1253 (2015)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $500.65
hoodquant
Down — $289.31
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $96.27
ply-pm2
Down — $70.88
blue.birds
Down — $70
asdaefef
Down — $51.37
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $44.46