Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 79%
2 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$131.3
Smart Money Signal
15 of 20 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$2.2 | 60% 584-385 (969) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $711.28 | $1.4K | +$731.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $710 | — | -$729.62 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.6¢ | $507.9 | $500 | +$2.1 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.6¢ | $252.84 | $500 | +$250.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$248.2 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $372.7 | $376.51 | +$3.81 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 90¢ | $128.03 | $105.1 | -$4.13 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $57.63 | $63.67 | +$6.03 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 94.2¢ | $46.51 | $40 | -$0.57 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $37.3 | $40 | +$2.7 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $39.32 | $45.14 | +$5.82 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87.5¢ | $41.88 | $47.88 | +$6 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $25.45 | $30.3 | +$4.85 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 88.4¢ | $48.58 | $21.38 | -$13.46 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 79.4¢ | $11.87 | $13.68 | +$1.94 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 55.9¢ | $15.13 | $27.07 | +$11.94 | 58% 5157-3805 (8962) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $24.52 | $15 | +$4.8 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $4.69 | $5.35 | +$0.66 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $5.55 | $5.16 | -$0.39 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $3.68 | — | -$3.68 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 80¢ | $5.6 | $5 | +$0.17 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 51% 1104-1049 (2153) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 6.7¢ | $40.92 | — | -$40.92 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 20.3¢ | $120.23 | — | -$120.23 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.8¢ | $6.35 | — | +$4.45 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$2.2
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Both legs:
Invested
$507.9
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.1
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$372.7
Value
$376.51
PnL
+$3.81
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$128.03
Value
$105.1
PnL
-$4.13
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$57.63
Value
$63.67
PnL
+$6.03
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$46.51
Value
$40
PnL
-$0.57
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$37.3
Value
$40
PnL
+$2.7
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
Invested
$39.32
Value
$45.14
PnL
+$5.82
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Invested
$41.88
Value
$47.88
PnL
+$6
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Invested
$25.45
Value
$30.3
PnL
+$4.85
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Invested
$48.58
Value
$21.38
PnL
-$13.46
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$11.87
Value
$13.68
PnL
+$1.94
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$15.13
Value
$27.07
PnL
+$11.94
Record
58%
5157-3805 (8962)
Invested
$24.52
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.8
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$4.69
Value
$5.35
PnL
+$0.66
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
Invested
$5.55
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$0.39
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$3.68
Value
—
PnL
-$3.68
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$5.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.17
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
51%
1104-1049 (2153)
Invested
$40.92
Value
—
PnL
-$40.92
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Invested
$120.23
Value
—
PnL
-$120.23
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$6.35
Value
—
PnL
+$4.45
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $376.51
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $105.1
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $63.67
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $40
pspspsps5
Up — $40
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $45.14
aaa221
Up — $47.88
soswald1
Up — $30.3