Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 65%
7 arb excluded
$7.3K
-$269.22
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $3.5K | $3.6K | +$35.78 | 53% 1555-1392 (2947) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.76 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $994.49 | -$20.72 | 60% 584-385 (969) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $497.25 | $994.49 | +$513.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $511.49 | — | -$534.05 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $535.48 | $495 | +$1.25 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $249.4 | — | -$247.75 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.2¢ | $248.7 | $495 | +$249 | |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 45.8¢ | $318.17 | — | -$308.03 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $165.74 | $150.43 | -$15.31 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.1¢ | $87.35 | $150.43 | +$63.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.8¢ | $78.39 | — | -$78.39 | |
RA rabadabadooARB<$100 | Downavg 52.8¢ | $115.55 | $112.51 | -$3.04 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.8¢ | $59.41 | $112.51 | +$53.1 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.8¢ | $56.14 | — | -$56.14 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $94.42 | $103 | +$8.58 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $59.25 | $103 | +$43.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.4¢ | $35.17 | — | -$35.17 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 76.6¢ | $121.11 | $96.16 | -$24.95 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $90 | -$18.3 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$39.85 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $52.5 | — | -$58.15 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $36.39 | $45 | +$8.61 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $19.82 | $45 | +$25.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.8¢ | $16.57 | — | -$16.57 | |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 49.1¢ | $33.1 | $35 | +$1.9 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $26.76 | $46 | +$19.24 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $33.09 | $24.21 | -$8.88 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $23.8 | $21.83 | -$0.51 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 62.4¢ | $16.28 | $14.78 | -$1.5 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.4¢ | $10.44 | — | -$10.44 | 58% 5157-3805 (8962) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $9.85 | — | -$9.85 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $8.47 | $15.68 | +$7.21 | 38% 762-1253 (2015) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $3.91 | — | -$3.91 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $34.55 | $4.02 | +$13.87 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $3.43 | $4.1 | +$0.67 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Upavg 21.1¢ | $215.52 | — | +$8.52 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $3.1 | — | -$3.1 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
Invested
$3,542.23
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$35.78
Record
53%
1555-1392 (2947)
Invested
$1,461.24
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.76
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$994.49
PnL
-$20.72
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Both legs:
Invested
$535.48
Value
$495
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$318.17
Value
—
PnL
-$308.03
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$165.74
Value
$150.43
PnL
-$15.31
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.55
Value
$112.51
PnL
-$3.04
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$94.42
Value
$103
PnL
+$8.58
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.11
Value
$96.16
PnL
-$24.95
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$150
Value
$90
PnL
-$18.3
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.39
Value
$45
PnL
+$8.61
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Both legs:
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$33.1
Value
$35
PnL
+$1.9
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$26.76
Value
$46
PnL
+$19.24
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$33.09
Value
$24.21
PnL
-$8.88
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$23.8
Value
$21.83
PnL
-$0.51
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$16.28
Value
$14.78
PnL
-$1.5
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
Invested
$10.44
Value
—
PnL
-$10.44
Record
58%
5157-3805 (8962)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.85
Value
—
PnL
-$9.85
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
Invested
$8.47
Value
$15.68
PnL
+$7.21
Record
38%
762-1253 (2015)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.91
Value
—
PnL
-$3.91
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$4.02
PnL
+$13.87
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$3.43
Value
$4.1
PnL
+$0.67
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Invested
$215.52
Value
—
PnL
+$8.52
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$3.1
Value
—
PnL
-$3.1
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $3.6K
hoodquant
Down — $1.5K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
rabadabadoo
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $96.16
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded