Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 53%
2 arb excluded
$1.2K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 19 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 60% 584-385 (969) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $505.1 | $500 | -$5.1 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $255.1 | — | -$255.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $357.66 | $361.51 | +$3.85 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $150 | $145 | +$2.48 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $72.5 | $145 | +$72.05 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $69.53 | — | -$69.57 | |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $33.99 | $30 | -$3.99 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $23 | $46 | +$23 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 54.5¢ | $18.68 | $34.29 | +$15.61 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $30.15 | — | -$21.1 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $18.72 | $38.39 | +$19.67 | 51% 1104-1049 (2153) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $16.45 | $35 | +$18.55 | 48% 1464-1570 (3034) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 86.7¢ | $18.32 | $14.74 | -$3.58 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $5.88 | $6.06 | +$0.18 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.6¢ | $3.77 | — | -$3.77 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 19.2¢ | $3.07 | — | -$3.07 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $1.36 | — | -$1.36 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $1.57 | $2.04 | +$0.47 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.2¢ | $0.29 | — | -$0.29 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $3.5 | — | -$3.5 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 5¢ | $1.35 | — | -$1.35 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Invested
$505.1
Value
$500
PnL
-$5.1
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$357.66
Value
$361.51
PnL
+$3.85
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$150
Value
$145
PnL
+$2.48
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Both legs:
Invested
$33.99
Value
$30
PnL
-$3.99
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Invested
$23
Value
$46
PnL
+$23
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$34.29
PnL
+$15.61
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$30.15
Value
—
PnL
-$21.1
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$18.72
Value
$38.39
PnL
+$19.67
Record
51%
1104-1049 (2153)
Invested
$16.45
Value
$35
PnL
+$18.55
Record
48%
1464-1570 (3034)
Invested
$18.32
Value
$14.74
PnL
-$3.58
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$0.18
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
Invested
$3.77
Value
—
PnL
-$3.77
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.07
Value
—
PnL
-$3.07
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.36
Value
—
PnL
-$1.36
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$1.57
Value
$2.04
PnL
+$0.47
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.29
Value
—
PnL
-$0.29
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
Invested
$3.5
Value
—
PnL
-$3.5
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.35
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $361.51
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $30
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $46
suntori
Down — $34.29
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
Little-big
Down — $38.39
PBot-5
Down — $35