Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 48% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
21
Up 47%
3 arb excluded
$1.8K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 21 top traders (48%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.2K | 60% 584-385 (969) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 56.7¢ | $911.39 | $559.49 | -$351.9 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.1¢ | $324.87 | $559.49 | +$234.62 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.7¢ | $586.52 | — | -$586.52 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $567.27 | $573 | +$5.73 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Upavg 49.7¢ | $530.53 | — | -$503.66 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 51¢ | $156.55 | $160 | +$14.1 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 63.9¢ | $130.69 | $120 | -$10.69 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 64¢ | $106.11 | $96.02 | -$4.27 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 68.3¢ | $99.93 | $76.64 | -$23.28 | 49% 3552-3629 (7181) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 68.3¢ | $52.32 | $76.64 | +$24.32 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $47.6 | — | -$47.6 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 42¢ | $76.79 | $56.79 | -$7.97 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42¢ | $37.8 | — | -$36.01 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.6¢ | $28.17 | $56.79 | +$28.03 | |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $27.85 | $50 | +$22.15 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.2¢ | $22.15 | — | -$22.15 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.3¢ | $32.18 | — | -$32.18 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 33.9¢ | $10.86 | $18.6 | +$7.74 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 62.3¢ | $20.3 | $29.78 | +$9.48 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $13.86 | $14 | +$0.14 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $4.78 | $12 | +$7.22 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 58% 5157-3805 (8962) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.6¢ | $63.82 | — | -$53.17 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $6.98 | — | -$6.98 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.6¢ | $3.56 | — | -$3.56 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $3.6 | $6 | +$2.4 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 20.7¢ | $2.28 | — | -$2.28 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $0.01 | — | -$0.01 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $3.73 | $0 | +$3.37 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Invested
$911.39
Value
$559.49
PnL
-$351.9
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Both legs:
Invested
$567.27
Value
$573
PnL
+$5.73
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$530.53
Value
—
PnL
-$503.66
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Invested
$156.55
Value
$160
PnL
+$14.1
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$130.69
Value
$120
PnL
-$10.69
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$106.11
Value
$96.02
PnL
-$4.27
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$99.93
Value
$76.64
PnL
-$23.28
Record
49%
3552-3629 (7181)
Both legs:
Invested
$76.79
Value
$56.79
PnL
-$7.97
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Both legs:
ohioism<$100Invested
$27.85
Value
$50
PnL
+$22.15
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
Invested
$22.15
Value
—
PnL
-$22.15
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
Invested
$32.18
Value
—
PnL
-$32.18
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$10.86
Value
$18.6
PnL
+$7.74
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
Invested
$20.3
Value
$29.78
PnL
+$9.48
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$13.86
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.14
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.78
Value
$12
PnL
+$7.22
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
58%
5157-3805 (8962)
Invested
$63.82
Value
—
PnL
-$53.17
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$6.98
Value
—
PnL
-$6.98
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$3.56
Value
—
PnL
-$3.56
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$6
PnL
+$2.4
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
—
PnL
-$2.28
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.01
Value
—
PnL
-$0.01
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$0
PnL
+$3.37
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $573
ByteBadger92
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $160
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $120
asdcaxz
Down — $96.02
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ohioism
Down — $50