Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
26
Down 38%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
10 of 26 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 60% 584-385 (969) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.9¢ | $507.97 | $490 | +$1 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $243.72 | $490 | +$249 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.9¢ | $249.31 | — | -$248 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 98.4¢ | $226.3 | $230.06 | +$3.76 | 53% 1555-1392 (2947) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.8¢ | $63.24 | — | -$63.24 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Upavg 41.9¢ | $60.42 | $59.99 | +$38.11 | 49% 2434-2485 (4919) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 57.9¢ | $30.25 | $49.44 | +$19.2 | 52% 5154-4832 (9986) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $32.22 | $32.88 | +$0.66 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 61.8¢ | $18.55 | $30 | +$11.45 | 48% 2474-2726 (5200) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 89.8¢ | $33.73 | $37.56 | +$3.83 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $24.5 | — | -$24.5 | 51% 1104-1049 (2153) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 64.9¢ | $15.9 | $24.49 | +$8.59 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $23.38 | $24.09 | +$0.71 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 52.6¢ | $152.12 | — | -$21.84 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $19.6 | — | -$19.6 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $12.17 | $23.49 | +$11.32 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $12.54 | $11.41 | +$4.81 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 26.8¢ | $2.8 | $7.97 | +$5.17 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.4¢ | $12.2 | — | -$12.2 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 73¢ | $7.3 | $10 | +$2.7 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $12.35 | $5.24 | -$1.1 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.85 | $5.82 | +$2.97 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 52.1¢ | $2.85 | $5.47 | +$2.62 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $0.31 | — | -$0.31 | 38% 762-1253 (2015) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.06 | — | -$0.06 | 36% 1455-2580 (4035) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $0.92 | $1 | +$4.73 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Invested
$507.97
Value
$490
PnL
+$1
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$226.3
Value
$230.06
PnL
+$3.76
Record
53%
1555-1392 (2947)
Invested
$63.24
Value
—
PnL
-$63.24
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
Invested
$60.42
Value
$59.99
PnL
+$38.11
Record
49%
2434-2485 (4919)
Invested
$30.25
Value
$49.44
PnL
+$19.2
Record
52%
5154-4832 (9986)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$32.22
Value
$32.88
PnL
+$0.66
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
Invested
$18.55
Value
$30
PnL
+$11.45
Record
48%
2474-2726 (5200)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$33.73
Value
$37.56
PnL
+$3.83
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
Invested
$24.5
Value
—
PnL
-$24.5
Record
51%
1104-1049 (2153)
ohioism<$100Invested
$15.9
Value
$24.49
PnL
+$8.59
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
Invested
$23.38
Value
$24.09
PnL
+$0.71
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$152.12
Value
—
PnL
-$21.84
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$19.6
Value
—
PnL
-$19.6
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Invested
$12.17
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$11.32
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
Invested
$12.54
Value
$11.41
PnL
+$4.81
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$7.97
PnL
+$5.17
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
Invested
$12.2
Value
—
PnL
-$12.2
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7.3
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.7
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$12.35
Value
$5.24
PnL
-$1.1
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$5.82
PnL
+$2.97
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$5.47
PnL
+$2.62
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Invested
$0.31
Value
—
PnL
-$0.31
Record
38%
762-1253 (2015)
Invested
$0.06
Value
—
PnL
-$0.06
Record
36%
1455-2580 (4035)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$1
PnL
+$4.73
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x50f7
Up — $230.06
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
uninformedfloww
Up — $59.99
blue.birds
Up — $49.44
pspspsps5
Up — $32.88
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $30
OhioRiskManagement
Up — $37.56
Little-big
CTRDown — $0