Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 59%
4 arb excluded
$3.2K
-$87.59
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$20.14 | 60% 584-385 (969) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $694.96 | $1.4K | +$719.21 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $671.73 | — | -$699.07 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $672.21 | $679 | +$6.79 | 98% 4362-90 (4452) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $501.98 | $500 | +$2.97 | 54% 4094-3445 (7539) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $245.58 | — | -$247.03 | |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 78.7¢ | $160.64 | $161.03 | +$0.39 | 50% 4512-4591 (9103) |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | $112.46 | -$11.28 | 52% 3756-3495 (7251) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $56.23 | $112.46 | +$61.92 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $67.5 | — | -$73.2 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 82.5¢ | $94.57 | $85.64 | -$8.93 | 54% 2644-2228 (4872) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.5¢ | $70.63 | $85.64 | +$15.01 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.3¢ | $23.94 | — | -$23.94 | |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $39.09 | $48.58 | +$15.06 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 57.4¢ | $28.61 | $39.98 | +$11.37 | 50% 2760-2748 (5508) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $53.56 | $30 | +$0.84 | 52% 2477-2332 (4809) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 77.5¢ | $26.53 | $29.39 | +$2.86 | 46% 1652-1902 (3554) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $30.61 | — | -$30.61 | 48% 2455-2651 (5106) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $16.54 | $17.92 | +$1.38 | 65% 2731-1490 (4221) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $15.86 | $19 | +$3.14 | 48% 2373-2615 (4988) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 9.5¢ | $9.86 | — | -$9.86 | 44% 2349-3036 (5385) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 85.1¢ | $18.6 | $19.92 | +$1.32 | 62% 4514-2735 (7249) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Downavg 90.7¢ | $18.3 | $20.17 | +$1.87 | 50% 1714-1745 (3459) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $12 | $18.04 | +$6.04 | 67% 3861-1939 (5800) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $4.46 | $13.51 | +$9.05 | 36% 1455-2580 (4035) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.3¢ | $7.19 | — | -$7.19 | 52% 2972-2710 (5682) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 68.5¢ | $7.37 | $10.75 | +$3.39 | 70% 1783-757 (2540) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.1¢ | $15.66 | — | -$11.39 | 60% 4136-2815 (6951) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | 39% 1683-2580 (4263) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1.51 | — | -$1.51 | 34% 1202-2379 (3581) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 42% 2015-2741 (4756) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | — | -$2.55 | 51% 2128-2037 (4165) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$20.14
Record
60%
584-385 (969)
Both legs:
Invested
$672.21
Value
$679
PnL
+$6.79
Record
98%
4362-90 (4452)
Invested
$501.98
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.97
Record
54%
4094-3445 (7539)
Both legs:
Invested
$160.64
Value
$161.03
PnL
+$0.39
Record
50%
4512-4591 (9103)
Invested
$150
Value
$112.46
PnL
-$11.28
Record
52%
3756-3495 (7251)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.57
Value
$85.64
PnL
-$8.93
Record
54%
2644-2228 (4872)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.09
Value
$48.58
PnL
+$15.06
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$28.61
Value
$39.98
PnL
+$11.37
Record
50%
2760-2748 (5508)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$53.56
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.84
Record
52%
2477-2332 (4809)
Invested
$26.53
Value
$29.39
PnL
+$2.86
Record
46%
1652-1902 (3554)
Invested
$30.61
Value
—
PnL
-$30.61
Record
48%
2455-2651 (5106)
Invested
$16.54
Value
$17.92
PnL
+$1.38
Record
65%
2731-1490 (4221)
ohioism<$100Invested
$15.86
Value
$19
PnL
+$3.14
Record
48%
2373-2615 (4988)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.86
Value
—
PnL
-$9.86
Record
44%
2349-3036 (5385)
Invested
$18.6
Value
$19.92
PnL
+$1.32
Record
62%
4514-2735 (7249)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$18.3
Value
$20.17
PnL
+$1.87
Record
50%
1714-1745 (3459)
Invested
$12
Value
$18.04
PnL
+$6.04
Record
67%
3861-1939 (5800)
Invested
$4.46
Value
$13.51
PnL
+$9.05
Record
36%
1455-2580 (4035)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.19
Value
—
PnL
-$7.19
Record
52%
2972-2710 (5682)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$7.37
Value
$10.75
PnL
+$3.39
Record
70%
1783-757 (2540)
Invested
$15.66
Value
—
PnL
-$11.39
Record
60%
4136-2815 (6951)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
-$3.06
Record
39%
1683-2580 (4263)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.51
Value
—
PnL
-$1.51
Record
34%
1202-2379 (3581)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
42%
2015-2741 (4756)
Invested
$2.55
Value
—
PnL
-$2.55
Record
51%
2128-2037 (4165)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $679
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Down — $161.03
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
suntori
Down — $48.58
dvasdkasodk
Down — $39.98
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
rabadabadoo
Down — $29.39