Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

15 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (79%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$2.04

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 100¢

+69% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,724

Combined PnL+$1.89

Down4 traders

Total Value$27.66

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$3.93

Up — 79%Down — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$2.57	60% 575-382 (957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$711.23	$1.1K	+$441.58
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$713.84	$292.68	-$439
SO soswald1	Upavg 50.2¢	$753.95	$744.81	+$10.02	52% 3730-3475 (7205)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50.7¢	$514.02	$504.77	+$4.18	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 81.5¢	$145.05	$133.14	-$5.91	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98.2¢	$90.33	$91.54	+$1.21	98% 4326-89 (4415)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 79¢	$75.15	$70.91	-$0.83	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 84¢	$36	$30	-$6	52% 5145-4824 (9969)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 64¢	$32	$25.25	-$6.75	51% 1099-1042 (2141)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 42.7¢	$21.15	$20.58	-$0.57	48% 2437-2636 (5073)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 74.6¢	$16.83	$19.16	+$2.33	54% 2631-2208 (4839)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 81¢	$12.39	$14.68	+$2.29	44% 2338-3018 (5356)
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 81¢	$12.3	$12.3	-$0	70% 1777-756 (2533)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$8.68	$10.67	+$1.99	47% 1645-1887 (3532)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90¢	$9.25	$8.48	-$0.77	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 83¢	$4.98	$5.13	+$0.15	52% 2955-2690 (5645)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 25.8¢	$14.37	$5.07	-$3.02	62% 4490-2713 (7203)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.93	-$0.03	65% 2713-1481 (4194)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$1.35	$1.26	-$0.09	39% 1668-2567 (4235)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 84¢	$0.84	$0.85	+$0.01	60% 4116-2795 (6911)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1	$0.75	-$0.25	50% 2738-2731 (5469)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$2.57

Record

60%

575-382 (957)

Both legs:

Up$711.2350¢+$441.58

Down$713.8450¢-$439

soswald1

Invested

$753.95

Value

$744.81

PnL

+$10.02

Record

52%

3730-3475 (7205)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$514.02

Value

$504.77

PnL

+$4.18

Record

54%

4065-3413 (7478)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$145.05

Value

$133.14

PnL

-$5.91

Record

51%

2459-2319 (4778)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$90.33

Value

$91.54

PnL

+$1.21

Record

98%

4326-89 (4415)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$75.15

Value

$70.91

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

4510-4587 (9097)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$36

Value

$30

PnL

-$6

Record

52%

5145-4824 (9969)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$32

Value

$25.25

PnL

-$6.75

Record

51%

1099-1042 (2141)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.15

Value

$20.58

PnL

-$0.57

Record

48%

2437-2636 (5073)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$16.83

Value

$19.16

PnL

+$2.33

Record

54%

2631-2208 (4839)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$12.39

Value

$14.68

PnL

+$2.29

Record

44%

2338-3018 (5356)

BoneOhio<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

$12.3

PnL

-$0

Record

70%

1777-756 (2533)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$8.68

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$1.99

Record

47%

1645-1887 (3532)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$9.25

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$0.77

Record

67%

3836-1923 (5759)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$4.98

Value

$5.13

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

2955-2690 (5645)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.37

Value

$5.07

PnL

-$3.02

Record

62%

4490-2713 (7203)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

65%

2713-1481 (4194)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.09

Record

39%

1668-2567 (4235)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$0.85

PnL

+$0.01

Record

60%

4116-2795 (6911)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$0.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

50%

2738-2731 (5469)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 19 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.