Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 45%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$-1.7K
Smart Money Signal
9 of 20 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.3K | 60% 575-382 (957) |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $756.3 | $760 | +$18.73 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$492 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $354.42 | $358 | +$3.58 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 43.9¢ | $89.66 | $155 | +$65.34 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.9¢ | $68.03 | $155 | +$86.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.8¢ | $21.63 | — | -$21.63 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Upavg 85.4¢ | $73.76 | $58.07 | -$15.69 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
LI Little-big | Upavg 51.3¢ | $60.57 | $118 | +$57.43 | 51% 1099-1042 (2141) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 76.5¢ | $18.89 | $17.5 | -$1.39 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $30 | — | -$15.15 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $13.12 | $15 | +$1.88 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $11.96 | $26 | +$14.04 | 48% 1455-1564 (3019) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $14.73 | $14 | -$0.73 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $11.15 | $11 | -$0.15 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 66.3¢ | $11.41 | $8.96 | -$2.45 | 47% 1645-1887 (3532) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.6¢ | $4.4 | — | -$4.4 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $2.66 | $7 | +$4.34 | 48% 2357-2599 (4956) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $6.31 | — | -$6.31 | 53% 1545-1383 (2928) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.12 | — | -$1.12 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.1¢ | $1.74 | — | -$1.74 | 33% 1191-2369 (3560) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 44% 2338-3018 (5356) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.15 | — | -$0.15 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
60%
575-382 (957)
Invested
$756.3
Value
$760
PnL
+$18.73
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$492
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Invested
$354.42
Value
$358
PnL
+$3.58
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$89.66
Value
$155
PnL
+$65.34
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.76
Value
$58.07
PnL
-$15.69
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$60.57
Value
$118
PnL
+$57.43
Record
51%
1099-1042 (2141)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$17.5
PnL
-$1.39
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$30
Value
—
PnL
-$15.15
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$13.12
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.88
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$26
PnL
+$14.04
Record
48%
1455-1564 (3019)
Invested
$14.73
Value
$14
PnL
-$0.73
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
Invested
$11.15
Value
$11
PnL
-$0.15
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$11.41
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$2.45
Record
47%
1645-1887 (3532)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
—
PnL
-$4.4
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
$7
PnL
+$4.34
Record
48%
2357-2599 (4956)
Invested
$6.31
Value
—
PnL
-$6.31
Record
53%
1545-1383 (2928)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.12
Value
—
PnL
-$1.12
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1.74
Record
33%
1191-2369 (3560)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
44%
2338-3018 (5356)
Invested
$0.15
Value
—
PnL
-$0.15
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
soswald1
Up — $760
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $358
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
Up — $58.07
Little-big
Up — $118
asdaefef
Up — $17.5
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
Up — $15