Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
20
Up 60%
2 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$238.99
Smart Money Signal
12 of 20 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$8.06 | 60% 575-382 (957) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $721.42 | $1.4K | +$720.08 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $704.2 | β | -$712.01 | |
SO soswald1 | Upavg 50Β’ | $751.58 | $692.59 | +$4.11 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5Β’ | $505.55 | $488.43 | +$12.83 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49Β’ | $239.52 | $488.43 | +$249.06 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.5Β’ | $241.54 | β | -$236.23 | |
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 54.7Β’ | $159.96 | $171.66 | +$15.49 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR | Downavg 62.9Β’ | $168.47 | β | -$163.98 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 26.7Β’ | $41.06 | β | -$41.06 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 47.2Β’ | $30.27 | $43.29 | +$13.02 | 47% 1645-1887 (3532) |
![]() cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Upavg 89.4Β’ | $32.4 | $36.23 | +$3.83 | 49% 1701-1739 (3440) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 77.4Β’ | $45.54 | β | -$41.19 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 75.3Β’ | $26.65 | $35.39 | +$8.75 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 64.9Β’ | $45.72 | β | -$45.72 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $25.01 | $25.26 | +$0.25 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 40.5Β’ | $14.42 | $23 | +$8.58 | 48% 2357-2599 (4956) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 49Β’ | $9.5 | $16.22 | +$6.72 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 94.7Β’ | $25 | $12.29 | -$7.73 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 55Β’ | $6.6 | $12 | +$5.4 | 58% 5145-3799 (8944) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.4Β’ | $10.44 | β | -$9.44 | 50% 2738-2731 (5469) |
FL flippingsharks<$100 | Upavg 27Β’ | $1.36 | $5.03 | +$3.67 | 38% 759-1247 (2006) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 31.1Β’ | $4.59 | $14.76 | +$10.17 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.3Β’ | $1.17 | β | -$1.17 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 49Β’ | $7.35 | β | -$7.35 | 48% 2437-2636 (5073) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 17Β’ | $1.35 | β | -$1.35 | 65% 2713-1481 (4194) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$8.06
Record
60%
575-382 (957)
Both legs:
Invested
$751.58
Value
$692.59
PnL
+$4.11
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$505.55
Value
$488.43
PnL
+$12.83
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$159.96
Value
$171.66
PnL
+$15.49
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$168.47
Value
β
PnL
-$163.98
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$41.06
Value
β
PnL
-$41.06
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Invested
$30.27
Value
$43.29
PnL
+$13.02
Record
47%
1645-1887 (3532)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$32.4
Value
$36.23
PnL
+$3.83
Record
49%
1701-1739 (3440)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$45.54
Value
β
PnL
-$41.19
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$26.65
Value
$35.39
PnL
+$8.75
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$45.72
Value
β
PnL
-$45.72
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Invested
$25.01
Value
$25.26
PnL
+$0.25
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.42
Value
$23
PnL
+$8.58
Record
48%
2357-2599 (4956)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$16.22
PnL
+$6.72
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$25
Value
$12.29
PnL
-$7.73
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.4
Record
58%
5145-3799 (8944)
Invested
$10.44
Value
β
PnL
-$9.44
Record
50%
2738-2731 (5469)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$5.03
PnL
+$3.67
Record
38%
759-1247 (2006)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.59
Value
$14.76
PnL
+$10.17
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
β
PnL
-$1.17
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
Invested
$7.35
Value
β
PnL
-$7.35
Record
48%
2437-2636 (5073)
Invested
$1.35
Value
β
PnL
-$1.35
Record
65%
2713-1481 (4194)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
soswald1
Up β $692.59
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
asdcaxz
Up β $171.66
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown β $0
rabadabadoo
Up β $43.29

cryingbabydicer87
Up β $36.23

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
aaa221
Up β $35.39