Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 65%
2 arb excluded
$3.2K
$-1.3K
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710 | Downavg 92.3¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$138.91 | 42% 1993-2712 (4705) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 575-382 (957) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.4¢ | $504.35 | $495 | -$1.05 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.4¢ | $251.8 | — | -$251.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.55 | $495 | +$250.75 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $393.82 | $397.9 | +$4.08 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $212.98 | $213.19 | +$0.21 | 53% 1545-1383 (2928) |
LI Little-bigARB<$100 | Downavg 76.3¢ | $81.86 | $68.76 | -$13.1 | 51% 1099-1042 (2141) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 14.7¢ | $29.4 | — | -$29.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.3¢ | $52.46 | $68.76 | +$16.3 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $31.65 | $35 | +$3.35 | 48% 2459-2704 (5163) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $86.57 | $32.55 | +$0.57 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $26.94 | $32.26 | +$5.32 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $24.6 | $30 | +$5.4 | 58% 5145-3799 (8944) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 88.4¢ | $24.3 | $27.5 | +$3.2 | 48% 2357-2599 (4956) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.6¢ | $11.62 | $11.61 | -$0.01 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 99.4¢ | $9.94 | $10 | +$0.06 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $10 | +$1.6 | 48% 2437-2636 (5073) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $5 | +$0.95 | 44% 2338-3018 (5356) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $4.9 | $5.33 | +$0.43 | 50% 2738-2731 (5469) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $4.85 | $5.27 | +$0.42 | 65% 2713-1481 (4194) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $5.65 | $5.05 | +$0.39 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 6.5¢ | $5.31 | — | -$5.31 | 33% 1191-2369 (3560) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $2.85 | — | -$2.85 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 3.4¢ | $3.03 | — | -$3.03 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1451-2565 (4016) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4.7¢ | $4.97 | — | -$4.97 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $6.18 | — | -$6.18 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
Invested
$1,674.09
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$138.91
Record
42%
1993-2712 (4705)
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
575-382 (957)
Invested
$504.35
Value
$495
PnL
-$1.05
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$393.82
Value
$397.9
PnL
+$4.08
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$212.98
Value
$213.19
PnL
+$0.21
Record
53%
1545-1383 (2928)
Invested
$81.86
Value
$68.76
PnL
-$13.1
Record
51%
1099-1042 (2141)
Both legs:
Invested
$31.65
Value
$35
PnL
+$3.35
Record
48%
2459-2704 (5163)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$86.57
Value
$32.55
PnL
+$0.57
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$26.94
Value
$32.26
PnL
+$5.32
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$24.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$5.4
Record
58%
5145-3799 (8944)
ohioism<$100Invested
$24.3
Value
$27.5
PnL
+$3.2
Record
48%
2357-2599 (4956)
Invested
$11.62
Value
$11.61
PnL
-$0.01
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Invested
$9.94
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.06
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.6
Record
48%
2437-2636 (5073)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
44%
2338-3018 (5356)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5.33
PnL
+$0.43
Record
50%
2738-2731 (5469)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5.27
PnL
+$0.42
Record
65%
2713-1481 (4194)
Invested
$5.65
Value
$5.05
PnL
+$0.39
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.31
Value
—
PnL
-$5.31
Record
33%
1191-2369 (3560)
Invested
$2.85
Value
—
PnL
-$2.85
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$3.03
Value
—
PnL
-$3.03
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1451-2565 (4016)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.97
Value
—
PnL
-$4.97
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
Invested
$6.18
Value
—
PnL
-$6.18
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710
Down — $1.8K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $397.9
0x50f7
Down — $213.19
Little-big
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $35
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $32.55
soswald1
Down — $32.26
Hcrystallash
Down — $30