Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 71%
2 arb excluded
$12.7K
$3.46
Smart Money Signal
17 of 24 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $7.5K | $7.6K | +$75.86 | 53% 1545-1383 (2928) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$2.46 | 60% 575-382 (957) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $725.23 | $1.5K | +$731.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $727.7 | — | -$729.52 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.4K | +$13.53 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $994.8 | $1.0K | +$5.2 | 70% 1777-756 (2533) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $503.71 | $495.16 | -$3.1 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $247.61 | $495.16 | +$247.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $248.63 | — | -$250.4 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 99¢ | $474.93 | $422 | -$52.93 | 51% 2104-2030 (4134) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 73.3¢ | $129.86 | $97.23 | -$0.72 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
AA aaa221 | Downavg 77.7¢ | $86.37 | $111.22 | +$24.85 | 60% 4116-2795 (6911) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 65.4¢ | $31.4 | $48 | +$16.6 | 48% 2357-2599 (4956) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $33.33 | $33 | -$0.33 | 39% 1668-2567 (4235) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $45.48 | $30 | -$15.48 | 49% 3541-3613 (7154) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $18.75 | $25 | +$6.25 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $24.58 | $22.96 | -$1.45 | 67% 3836-1923 (5759) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $13.48 | — | -$13.48 | 48% 2437-2636 (5073) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 65.5¢ | $16.56 | $19.72 | +$3.15 | 47% 1645-1887 (3532) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $5.95 | $11.34 | +$5.39 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 81.6¢ | $10.51 | $11.29 | +$0.78 | 65% 2713-1481 (4194) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $12.8 | — | -$12.8 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.7¢ | $47.95 | — | -$46.7 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $6.8 | $10 | +$3.2 | 48% 2459-2704 (5163) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 28.9¢ | $9.39 | — | -$9.39 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 52.2¢ | $3.83 | $7.33 | +$3.5 | 44% 2338-3018 (5356) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $4.75 | $4.83 | +$0.2 | 50% 2738-2731 (5469) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.68 | — | -$1.68 | 42% 1993-2712 (4705) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.04 | — | -$0.04 | 33% 1191-2369 (3560) |
Invested
$7,510.16
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$75.86
Record
53%
1545-1383 (2928)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$2.46
Record
60%
575-382 (957)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,339.47
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$13.53
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
BoneOhioInvested
$994.8
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$5.2
Record
70%
1777-756 (2533)
Invested
$503.71
Value
$495.16
PnL
-$3.1
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$474.93
Value
$422
PnL
-$52.93
Record
51%
2104-2030 (4134)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$129.86
Value
$97.23
PnL
-$0.72
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$86.37
Value
$111.22
PnL
+$24.85
Record
60%
4116-2795 (6911)
ohioism<$100Invested
$31.4
Value
$48
PnL
+$16.6
Record
48%
2357-2599 (4956)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$33.33
Value
$33
PnL
-$0.33
Record
39%
1668-2567 (4235)
Invested
$45.48
Value
$30
PnL
-$15.48
Record
49%
3541-3613 (7154)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.25
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Invested
$24.58
Value
$22.96
PnL
-$1.45
Record
67%
3836-1923 (5759)
Invested
$13.48
Value
—
PnL
-$13.48
Record
48%
2437-2636 (5073)
Invested
$16.56
Value
$19.72
PnL
+$3.15
Record
47%
1645-1887 (3532)
Invested
$5.95
Value
$11.34
PnL
+$5.39
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$0.78
Record
65%
2713-1481 (4194)
Invested
$12.8
Value
—
PnL
-$12.8
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Invested
$47.95
Value
—
PnL
-$46.7
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.2
Record
48%
2459-2704 (5163)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$9.39
Value
—
PnL
-$9.39
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$3.83
Value
$7.33
PnL
+$3.5
Record
44%
2338-3018 (5356)
Invested
$4.75
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.2
Record
50%
2738-2731 (5469)
Invested
$1.68
Value
—
PnL
-$1.68
Record
42%
1993-2712 (4705)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.04
Value
—
PnL
-$0.04
Record
33%
1191-2369 (3560)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $7.6K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $1.4K
BoneOhio
Down — $1.0K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $422
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $97.23
aaa221
Down — $111.22
ohioism
Down — $48
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $33