Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 59%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$39.05

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 17 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$398.69

Total Shares399

Combined PnL+$52.28

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares146

Combined PnL-$91.34

Down — 59%Up — 41%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$3.39	60% 575-382 (957)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$711.34	—	-$708.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$711.32	$1.4K	+$711.46
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$506.7	$490	-$10	54% 4065-3413 (7478)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$251.67	—	-$253.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$243.3
SO soswald1	Downavg 58.3¢	$108.6	$125.48	+$18.33	52% 3730-3475 (7205)
AS asdcaxz	Downavg 61.2¢	$137.14	$116.77	-$17.07	50% 4510-4587 (9097)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$57.63	$49.69	-$7.94	54% 2631-2208 (4839)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.3¢	$36.33	—	-$36.33
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$21.3	$49.69	+$28.39
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$40.32	—	-$36.87	51% 2459-2319 (4778)
RA rabadabadooARB<$100	Downavg 35.8¢	$29.89	$47.06	+$17.17	47% 1645-1887 (3532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.8¢	$16.87	$47.06	+$30.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.2¢	$13.02	—	-$13.02
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 53.9¢	$38.79	$59	+$20.21	51% 2104-2030 (4134)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 72.1¢	$43.82	$37.78	-$6.04	60% 4116-2795 (6911)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$12.45	—	-$12.45	48% 2459-2704 (5163)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 33.4¢	$6.4	—	-$6.4	38% 759-1247 (2006)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 33¢	$8	$15.91	+$7.95	62% 4490-2713 (7203)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 20.5¢	$2.63	$12.85	+$10.21	52% 2955-2690 (5645)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 52¢	$5.2	$10	+$4.8	50% 933-923 (1856)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 28¢	$2.8	$10	+$7.2	48% 2437-2636 (5073)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 47.2¢	$3.92	—	-$3.92	50% 2738-2731 (5469)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 39¢	$2.3	$5.9	+$3.6	39% 1668-2567 (4235)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$5	+$3.1	42% 1993-2712 (4705)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 54.9¢	$12.38	—	-$10.48	67% 3836-1923 (5759)
BoneOhioCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$0.96	—	-$0.96	70% 1777-756 (2533)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 53.3¢	$28.35	—	-$20.25	44% 2338-3018 (5356)