Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 62%
3 arb excluded
$2.9K
-$131.84
Smart Money Signal
8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$3.1 | 60% 575-382 (957) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $734.25 | $1.5K | +$733.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $733.39 | — | -$730.57 | |
SO soswald1ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $750 | $720 | -$2.37 | 52% 3730-3475 (7205) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $360 | $720 | +$354.6 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $348.8 | — | -$356.97 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $502.59 | $501.81 | +$3.46 | 54% 4065-3413 (7478) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $247.66 | $501.81 | +$253.46 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $250 | — | -$250 | |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 35.4¢ | $89.79 | — | -$89.79 | 52% 5145-4824 (9969) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $41.93 | $42.35 | +$0.42 | 98% 4326-89 (4415) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 41.8¢ | $24.69 | $37.68 | +$12.99 | 47% 1645-1887 (3532) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $52.23 | $30 | +$2.95 | 51% 2459-2319 (4778) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $28.33 | — | -$28.33 | 54% 2631-2208 (4839) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $22.31 | $19 | -$3.31 | 62% 4490-2713 (7203) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $11.55 | — | -$11.55 | 48% 2459-2704 (5163) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 19.1¢ | $3.11 | $9.65 | +$6.54 | 52% 2955-2690 (5645) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $3.72 | — | -$3.37 | 46% 3188-3736 (6924) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $6.46 | $19 | +$12.54 | 44% 2338-3018 (5356) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $0.76 | $5.06 | +$4.3 | 42% 1993-2712 (4705) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $2.25 | $4.41 | +$2.16 | 51% 1099-1042 (2141) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.4¢ | $37.4 | — | -$37.4 | 50% 4510-4587 (9097) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$3.1
Record
60%
575-382 (957)
Both legs:
Invested
$750
Value
$720
PnL
-$2.37
Record
52%
3730-3475 (7205)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.59
Value
$501.81
PnL
+$3.46
Record
54%
4065-3413 (7478)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.79
Value
—
PnL
-$89.79
Record
52%
5145-4824 (9969)
Invested
$41.93
Value
$42.35
PnL
+$0.42
Record
98%
4326-89 (4415)
Invested
$24.69
Value
$37.68
PnL
+$12.99
Record
47%
1645-1887 (3532)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$52.23
Value
$30
PnL
+$2.95
Record
51%
2459-2319 (4778)
Invested
$28.33
Value
—
PnL
-$28.33
Record
54%
2631-2208 (4839)
Invested
$22.31
Value
$19
PnL
-$3.31
Record
62%
4490-2713 (7203)
Invested
$11.55
Value
—
PnL
-$11.55
Record
48%
2459-2704 (5163)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$3.11
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$6.54
Record
52%
2955-2690 (5645)
Invested
$3.72
Value
—
PnL
-$3.37
Record
46%
3188-3736 (6924)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$6.46
Value
$19
PnL
+$12.54
Record
44%
2338-3018 (5356)
Invested
$0.76
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$4.3
Record
42%
1993-2712 (4705)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$2.16
Record
51%
1099-1042 (2141)
Invested
$37.4
Value
—
PnL
-$37.4
Record
50%
4510-4587 (9097)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
soswald1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $42.35
rabadabadoo
Down — $37.68
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $19
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0