Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

16 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Down (70%) · Down at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$4.28

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 100¢

+72% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,561

Combined PnL+$11.09

Up7 traders

Total Value$732.54

Total Shares986

Combined PnL-$15.38

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$2.07	61% 559-364 (923)
SO soswald1CTR	Upavg 50¢	$750	$727.99	+$2.79	52% 3683-3445 (7128)
BY ByteBadger92	Downavg 50.4¢	$506.9	$495	+$4.05	54% 3980-3330 (7310)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$226.08	$227.43	+$1.34	98% 4234-88 (4322)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$93.34	$86.42	+$3.01	52% 2413-2270 (4683)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 79.6¢	$86.4	$83.71	-$2.69	50% 3495-3507 (7002)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.6¢	$52.9	$46.83	-$6.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.8¢	$33.5	$36.88	+$3.38
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 77.1¢	$42.42	$48.13	+$5.71	48% 2400-2586 (4986)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$31.8	$33.11	+$1.31	55% 2589-2161 (4750)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$27.3	$27.73	+$0.42	51% 2054-1988 (4042)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85.2¢	$26.13	$26.59	+$0.46	67% 3766-1879 (5645)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 60¢	$30	$24.75	-$5.25	51% 1073-1021 (2094)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 89¢	$24.52	$22.07	+$0.63	62% 4407-2657 (7064)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$17.33	$15.53	-$0.62	47% 1617-1858 (3475)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 69¢	$13.8	$14.5	+$0.7	44% 2305-2951 (5256)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 92¢	$12.72	$12.1	-$0.62	60% 4054-2741 (6795)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 82¢	$12.19	$10.39	-$1.81	48% 2311-2552 (4863)
FL flippingsharks<$100	Downavg 92¢	$5.23	$5.38	+$0.14	38% 743-1229 (1972)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 91¢	$5.22	$4.76	-$0.46	48% 2415-2654 (5069)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 9.7¢	$0.84	$1.69	+$0.85	52% 2912-2637 (5549)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$1.02	$1.65	+$0.63	42% 1925-2669 (4594)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.1	$1.07	-$0.03	65% 2664-1450 (4114)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 8.3¢	$18.69	$0.11	-$18.58	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.03	-$0.03	36% 1441-2539 (3980)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$1.02	$0	-$1.02	50% 2694-2677 (5371)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$2.07

Record

61%

559-364 (923)

soswald1CTR

Invested

$750

Value

$727.99

PnL

+$2.79

Record

52%

3683-3445 (7128)

ByteBadger92

Down

Invested

$506.9

Value

$495

PnL

+$4.05

Record

54%

3980-3330 (7310)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$226.08

Value

$227.43

PnL

+$1.34

Record

98%

4234-88 (4322)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$93.34

Value

$86.42

PnL

+$3.01

Record

52%

2413-2270 (4683)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.4

Value

$83.71

PnL

-$2.69

Record

50%

3495-3507 (7002)

Both legs:

Down$52.979.6¢-$6.07

Up$33.526.8¢+$3.38

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$42.42

Value

$48.13

PnL

+$5.71

Record

48%

2400-2586 (4986)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.8

Value

$33.11

PnL

+$1.31

Record

55%

2589-2161 (4750)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$27.3

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$0.42

Record

51%

2054-1988 (4042)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$26.13

Value

$26.59

PnL

+$0.46

Record

67%

3766-1879 (5645)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

$24.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

51%

1073-1021 (2094)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$24.52

Value

$22.07

PnL

+$0.63

Record

62%

4407-2657 (7064)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$17.33

Value

$15.53

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

1617-1858 (3475)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$13.8

Value

$14.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

44%

2305-2951 (5256)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$12.72

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$0.62

Record

60%

4054-2741 (6795)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$12.19

Value

$10.39

PnL

-$1.81

Record

48%

2311-2552 (4863)

flippingsharks<$100

Down

Invested

$5.23

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$0.14

Record

38%

743-1229 (1972)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$5.22

Value

$4.76

PnL

-$0.46

Record

48%

2415-2654 (5069)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.84

Value

$1.69

PnL

+$0.85

Record

52%

2912-2637 (5549)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.63

Record

42%

1925-2669 (4594)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$1.1

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.03

Record

65%

2664-1450 (4114)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$18.69

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$18.58

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.03

Record

36%

1441-2539 (3980)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.02

Value

PnL

-$1.02

Record

50%

2694-2677 (5371)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.